519
FXUS66 KLOX 071200
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
400 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/201 AM.

A warming and drying trend will develop through the weekend as
offshore flow establishes beneath building high pressure aloft.
Temperatures above seasonal levels are likely Saturday through
Monday with 80s and 90s being common across most coastal and
valley locations. A storm system will likely move over the region
the latter half of next week and could bring moderate to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...07/336 AM.

The latest surface observations show offshore flow establishing
across the area this morning. Weak to locally moderate offshore
gradients are in place currently. Ridging aloft continues to build
in over the region as high pressure centered near 26N and 133W
amplifies off the West Coast. Some low clouds remain over southern
Los Angeles County this morning as the marine layer depth remains
wedged in. Some low clouds and fog are spilling over into the
interior valleys and mountains, such as the Cuyama and California
Valleys and out on the Carrizo Plain.

Gusty offshore winds continue to develop across the region. Mt.
Lowe is gusting to 55 mph currently, and Sandberg hit 54 mph
earlier in the night. Sundowner winds have been a little more
marginal at this point, but a few gusts into 45 to 50 mph were
observed last evening. Wind headlines were tweaked to keep the
Santa Ynez Range in an advisory through early Saturday morning as
winds will retreat into the higher elevations later today then
redevelop tonight and into Saturday morning. There is a good
chance that an advisory will need to reissued and/or extended into
the coastal zones of southern Santa Barbara County. Farther to
the north, a wind advisory remains in effect for the Santa Lucia
range through 11 am this morning. As winds are progged to reach
down a little farther down into the foothills of the Santa Lucia
range, this advisory will likely need to be reissued for tonight
through Saturday morning and expanded into the Central Coast
portion.

With offshore flow developing and the ridge aloft building in, a
warming and drying trend will establish through early next week.
Warm daytime temperatures expected today will turn hotter over
the weekend with 80s to mid 90s being common across coastal and
valley locations by Sunday. Near record heat will develop across
the region and there is a chance that heat advisories may be
needed starting Sunday as heat risk values climb. While daytime
record highs are warmer for Sunday, there is a good chance that
record values could be tied in some spots.

The latest NAM-WRF solutions continue suggest a low-end advisory
level Santa Ana wind event setting up across the usual Santa Ana
wind corridor between late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning. While EPS ensemble members do not pick up on this event
and suggest the NAM-WRF solutions to be an outlier, higher
resolution SREF and REFS ensemble members are starting to fall
inline with the idea of advisory levels wind developing. Early
frames of the 00Z REFS solutions match up well with the ideas
presented by the NAM-WRF solutions. In addition, NCEP SREF member
means advertise -6 mb KLAX-KDAG surface pressure gradients on
Sunday morning, stronger than the latest deterministic NAM-WRF
gradient of -4.4 mb. Stay tuned as this wrinkle will hopefully get
ironed out here in the next 12-24 hours.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...07/357 AM.

Another hot Santa Ana day is expected Monday, potentially setting
records as the record high values are cooler than Sunday. SREF
ensemble members suggest KLAX-KDAG pressure gradients near -6 mb
again, but with less wind support aloft, it could end up only
being breezy to locally windy.

The flow regime will change between Monday afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon as the pattern will shift from offshore to onshore. A
cooling trend should begin for Tuesday along with a return of low
clouds and fog. With the low clouds and fog returning in a shallow
layer, dense fog issues could develop.

Models continue to advertise a storm system moving over the region
late next week. There is still large range of possible outcomes
ranging from little to no rain (for portions of the area) to
heavy rain. The timing of the rain continues to bump to a later
time. The most likely outcome is a moderate storm impacting the
area with 1-3 inches of rain later Thursday into Friday. However,
the timing in the models ranges anywhere from as early as
Wednesday to as late as the following Tuesday. For now, NBM values
remain in the forecast for PoPs, but temperatures were nudged to
match time periods for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1158Z.

At 0921Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3000 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Overall, moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by +/- 2 hours, with flight cats off by
one or two when CIGs are present. There is a 30% chance of LIFR
conditions developing at KPRB through 16Z Fri.

In addition, LLWS and Turbulence is possible over & near mountainous
terrain. The terminals most likely to be impacted are KSBP (best chc)
and KSMX. Concern is highest for both sites thru 18Z Fri, and again
from 06Z to 12Z Saturday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. OVC005-008 expected thru
around 17Z (+/- 1.5 hours). CIGs could periodically lower to LIFR
OVC003-004. Subsequent arrival of ~OVC005 CIGs after 06Z Sat could
be off by +/- 2.5 hours. Good confidence in any east wind component
remaining below 7-8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. LIFR conditions expected
through around 16Z Fri. Then, VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...07/209 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas
will continue through at least Saturday morning. Additionally,
local gusts of 35 kt will occur at times across the waters from
around Point Conception, San Miguel island, and down to buoy 46069
through Friday evening. For Sunday through Tuesday, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Through Friday night, a combination of SCA
level winds and seas is expected. For Saturday through Tuesday,
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. Across a majority of the southern Inner
Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel where SCA level winds are
expected during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday night.

Through Friday, large tidal swings between morning high tide and
afternoon low tides (7-8 ft changes) will cause strong currents
nearshore. The large west-northwest swell combined with the high
tides will create breaking waves at Morro Bay Harbor and possibly
Ventura Harbor.

&&

.BEACHES...07/209 AM.

A long-period northwest swell will continue to bring high surf,
dangerous rip currents and some coastal flooding to the local
beaches through Friday night and Saturday.

Coastal Flood Advisories, High Surf Advisories, and a Beach
Hazards Statement remain in effect for all coastal areas.

Please refer to LAXCFWLOX and LAXSRFLOX for the latest details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 11 AM PST this morning for
      zones 342-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 2 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones
      351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/CC
BEACHES...RAT/CC/Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox