160
FXUS66 KLOX 111653
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
953 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/1215 AM.

There will be a slow cooling trend through Sunday. Despite the
cooling most max temps will remain above normal through Sunday.
Marine layer stratus and fog will return to most beaches today,
then will become more widespread with increasing inland extent
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...11/951 AM.

***UPDATE***

Low clouds continue to surge northward over the waters west of
the Central Coast while gradually receding toward the shore over
the southern coastal valleys. The forecast remains on track for
marine layer stratus and fog to become more widespread tonight
into Friday morning with persistent onshore flow. Temperatures
today will be notably cooler than yesterday for Central Coast
beaches and valleys. The return of onshore flow will result in 10+
degrees of cooling for most locations in this area. Along the
Southern Coast, more modest cooling of around 5 degrees will
occur. Interior areas will remain warm with similar temperatures
to yesterday.

***From Previous Discussion***

Srn CA will be under a Cull area for the short term with hgts
around 589 dam. At the sfc there will be mdt to stg onshore flow
both to the N and the E. A fairly strong eddy has raised the
marine layer to at least 2200 ft and has brought low clouds to
most cst/vly areas south of Pt Conception. It is also generating a
south surge which will bring low clouds up into the waters just
west of the Central Coast.

Look for the marine layer stratus to increase in coverage and
duration through the period with many beaches seeing slow to no
clearing on Friday and Saturday.

Most max temps will cool a few degrees today (The far interior
will be the exception and will warm a degree or two), but most of
SLO county will see double digit cooling as the offshore flow that
warmed the area ydy will not occur today. Look for 2 to 3 more
degrees of cooling Friday as the marine layer expands and the
onshore push increases. Saturday will see little change in
temperatures. Despite all of this cooling almost all max temps
will remain above normal through the period with only the beaches
seeing normal or slightly blo normal temps. In general the csts
will see max temps in the 70s and lower 80s, while the vlys will
warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The one fly in the forecast ointment comes from the SW flow around
an upper high centered over nrn Mexico. This flow pattern will
bring some mid level monsoon moisture up into Srn CA. PWAT may
climb to near 1 inch later Friday. At this time it looks like the
bulk of the moisture and associated afternoon convection will be
just south of LA County in Orange County and esp San Diego
County. There is, however, a 10 percent chc that enough moisture
will creep upward to bring TSTMs to the LA county mtns.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...11/247 AM.

Very June like conditions on tap for the weekend and early next
week. Weak high pressure will be overhead with hgts near 591 dam.
The mdt-stg onshore flow will continue both to the north and east.
This will bring night through morning low clouds and fog to almost
all of the coasts and many of the vlys every day.

Look for little or no change in temps on Saturday. On Sunday most
areas will cool a few degrees. There will not be much day to day
change in temps early next week. Max temps will be near or even a
degree or two blo normal across the csts and vlys due to the
marine layer and strong onshore flow. The mtns and far interior,
however, will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal due to the
higher than normal hgts.

Like Friday, there is a small (5 percent) chance for a shower or
thunderstorm over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains Saturday
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1148Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 2200 ft deep. The
inversion top was at 3300 ft with a maximum temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KSBP where there is 30
percent chc of MVFR cig/vis 13Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Cig hgts may be off
by +/- 200 ft and VFR transition could be 1 hour delayed at KBUR
and KVNY and up to 2 hours at the rest of the cstl sites.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late
as 20Z. Low clouds could arrive as early as 11/02Z. The east wind
component is expect to be less than 8 kt.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late
as 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...11/751 AM.

Localized steep seas are still present across the far northern
outer waters, these conditions are expected to diminish by late
morning.

Otherwise, conditions are generally expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through early next week. Localized
wind gusts could reach 21 kts near Point Conception, western
Santa Barbara Channel, near the Channel Islands, and across
the San Pedro Channel. Low chance of advisory through weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Fewkes
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Phillips/Fewkes

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox