438
FXUS66 KLOX 161612
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
912 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/905 AM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and
Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused
over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a
chance of rain next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/911 AM.

***UPDATE***

A weak upper low from the southwest is moving over the area today
creating lots of high clouds but no rain. Clouds should thin out
after noon with clear skies after that and through the weekend.
The main issue is the Santa Ana winds coming tomorrow. Models have
been slowly backing off the magnitude but still still expecting
widespread 20-40 mph winds across the normal areas in LA/Ventura
Counties, with isolated peak gusts as high as 60 mph in the
mountains.

***From Previous Discussion***

Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push
temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coasts and
valleys.

Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into
Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will
continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper
80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/238 AM.

Still a bit of uncertainty in the long term, especially Monday
through Wednesday. However, as of now, impacts look to be minimal
locally. On Sunday, pressure gradients turn back to onshore ahead
of a cold upper level low pressure system that will make its way
southward from the Pacific NW through the weak. With the return of
onshore gradients, highs will cool several degrees, but highs will
remain in the low 80s across the valleys, mid 70s to around 80 in
Downtown LA and across other inland coastal areas.

The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on
the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding
down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though
the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as
little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for
coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as
well, though timing and exact amounts is still uncertain. Rain
could fall anywhere between Monday through Wednesday, or not at
all. At this time, amounts look to be pretty minimal, with some
solutions showing totals around 0.50 inches or less, mainly north
of Point Conception.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1255Z.

At 1220Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2200 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through
16Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in
KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high
confidence in TAFs.

There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions
develop through 16Z Thursday at KSMX (20%) and KPRB (20%), and
between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX (40%),
KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%). Higher level clouds are obscuring view
of low level clouds, and if low clouds do arrive, high clouds may
disrupt the marine layer causing IFR/MVR cigs to scatter and
reform through 16Z Thu.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z, and again
after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-012 conds through
16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind
component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 6
kt through 15Z this morning, and a 60% chance 10-15Z Fri.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...16/756 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday
morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. This afternoon
through late tonight, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds
and a GALE WARNING has been issued for all Outer water zones.
However, localized gale force gusts are possible through this morning.
Seas will peak Saturday night into early Friday morning and then
diminish below advisory levels through Friday. Saturday through
Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in SCA level winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest
during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of
GALE force wind gusts across the western portion this evening.
Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level
winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through around midnight. Starting early Friday
morning, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds
from Ventura south to Santa Monica out to Anacapa Island, and
potentially across the San Pedro Channel. From Point Mugu to
Malibu on Friday morning, there is a 30% chance for Gale Force
winds immediately nearshore especially below any canyons/passes.
Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 8
      AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW/Lund
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox