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000
FXUS65 KABQ 160756
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The threat of strong to potentially damaging winds
remains along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains this morning,
shifting to the Central Highlands around Clines Corners and
Guadalupe County today. Dry, warm, and windy conditions will also
produce critical fire weather conditions over much of the
northeastern and east-central plains of NM this afternoon. Calmer
weather returns Wednesday and Thursday. A sharp cool down invades
eastern NM Thursday night and Friday morning with a jump in moisture
and humidity as well. This cooler airmass remains entrenched across
the eastern plains through the weekend, with chances for showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm each day. East canyon winds in Santa Fe
and Albuquerque are also likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. Areas
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will remain dry, warm, and
breezy each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An H5 low deepening to near 549dm over southeast CO this morning
will allow strong westerly winds to continue over parts of NM
today. 00Z model guidance shows 700-500mb layer winds peaking
early in the day with high wind gusts near 60 mph at times along
the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The 00Z HREF ensemble
mean max gust shows the strongest gusts from 12Z to 16Z in the
Sangre de Cristos. A brief period of high wind gusts are possible
from Clines Corners to western Guadalupe County however the 00Z
HREF speeds have trended lighter compared to the previous runs.
Otherwise, no significant changes noted today. Max temps will
trend 5-10F warmer over central and western NM with sunny skies,
breezy northwest winds, and low humidity.

Winds will trend even lighter tonight while a very weak shortwave
trough crosses NM and the surface pressure gradient continues to
relax. Min temps will be chilly again with more notable inversions
compared to this morning. Wednesday will trend another 5-10F warmer
areawide while zonal flow aloft strengthens once again. A very dry
airmass will slide overhead with humidity falling into the single
digits in many areas. Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions
will make for a typical blow drier April day in NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 138 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The long term period begins Thursday with a fairly
pleasant day across northern and central NM. High temperatures will
be well above normal all areas, except far northeastern NM between
Raton and Clayton where the leading edge of a cold front will have
backed into the area from CO. This cold front surges south and
westward to the east slopes of the central mountain chain Friday
morning. With quasi-zonal flow aloft overrunning this shallow colder
airmass, low clouds will be likely along and behind this frontal
boundary over eastern NM Friday morning. Forecast highs Friday will
fall ~10F across eastern NM, staying steady ahead of the front along
and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Global model solutions show this
boundary having a secondary push westward through the gaps of the
central mountain chain Friday night into Saturday morning. East
canyon winds at Santa Fe and Albuquerque will be likely as a result.
A persistent low cloud deck is likely to remain entrenched across
eastern NM Saturday. However, a weak upper level trough will
approach the region from the west Saturday providing some
instability and lift to allow for light showers along and east of
the central mountain chain Saturday, especially Saturday afternoon
and evening along the leading edge of the frontal boundary. Would
expect more stratiform activity behind the front through eastern NM
where the cap will simply be too strong for any convective activity.
More robust showers and thunderstorms will favor the western edge of
the frontal boundary along the central mountain chain.

Sunday sees the cooler airmass across eastern NM begin to modify and
erode, with surface winds veering south through the day. Breaks in
the low stratus cloud deck will be likely with forecast high
temperatures warming 5F-10F from Saturday. A few more showers and a
thunderstorm or two will be possible across eastern NM as well.
Further erosion and modification of this airmass will continue
Monday with warmer and drier weather returning to eastern NM.
Western and central areas all the while are forecast to remain warm,
dry, and breezy each day this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The primary aviation impacts for the next 12 to 18 hours will be
the result of strong winds, turbulence, and LLWS. Lower terrain
terminals have decoupled somewhat late this evening so winds will
remain relatively light overnights. However, LLWS will increase
given winds remain very strong aloft. Areas in the high terrain
and nearby highlands will remain gusty all night. Surface winds
will strengthen again quickly in all areas Tuesday morning with
gusts of 25 to 35 kt common by 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM TODAY...

A storm system exiting the region today will keep strong westerly
winds in place across parts of eastern NM. Very low humidity with
these strong winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions,
mainly over the Central Highlands. Confidence on critical fire
weather has decreased over the rest of the area as winds trended
lighter on the latest forecast. The next storm system will pass
north of the region Wednesday and Thursday with marginal to locally
critical fire weather across the upper Rio Grande Valley and the I-
25 corridor of northeast NM. Temps will trend much warmer as well
with deep mixing and gusty west to southwest winds. A backdoor cold
front will slide into eastern NM Thursday with much higher humidity
and a nice stretch of relief from critical conditions thru the end
of the week. Overnight recoveries will be good to excellent each
morning Friday thru Sunday. The front may seep into the RGV with
briefly higher RH. The rest of central and western NM will remain
very dry and warm thru the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  37  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  66  28  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  62  33  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  67  30  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  63  33  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  67  30  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  64  34  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  69  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  64  35  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  32  77  34 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  75  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  59  29  64  34 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  65  40  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  65  39  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  60  40  65  46 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  57  28  61  35 /   5   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  57  27  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  66  30  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  36  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  71  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  66  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  69  37  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  43  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  39  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  42  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  76  38  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  72  41  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  75  38  82  38 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  75  39  82  40 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  68  42  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  72  42  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  78  44  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  40  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  67  38  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  67  35  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  31  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  64  36  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  68  37  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  68  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  71  45  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  66  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  69  36  73  37 /   5   5   0   0
Raton...........................  73  34  76  37 /   0   5   0   0
Springer........................  73  35  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  69  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  75  43  78  45 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  74  40  77  44 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  81  42  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  75  40  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  42  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  79  46  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  81  45  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  79  43  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  85  48  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  76  44  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  74  43  81  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ104-125-126.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ214-215.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ229.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM MDT this
afternoon for NMZ223-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42