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000
FXAK67 PAJK 231223
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
423 AM AKDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Chances of rain showers continue as a low over the
central Gulf treks east, sending waves of showers northward. Most
of these waves are less than impressive. A lack of upper level
support, combined with lingering northerly outflow is eroding away
at what precipitation does manage to advance into the panhandle.
Consequently, while the chance for showers will be present through
the day for much of the area - with the highest chances in the
southern panhandle, am not expecting anything significant in the
way of precipitation totals. Showers will become more numerous
over the S through the morning hours as the low tracks closer, and
a somewhat stronger wave tries to push into the area. Think that
the wave will have trouble moving through the central panhandle,
but did include the chances for a few showers as far north as
Juneau later in the day, as the possibility does exist that
orographic forcing may prove sufficient to overcome the synoptic-
level challenges to some degree. Despite these precip chances,
still think that the N half of the panhandle will likely see some
clearing of skies by late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening.
Chances of precipitation diminish late tonight across the central
panhandle as the low disintegrates, with the residual circulation
potentially meandering into the southern panhandle or the coast
mountains on Wednesday and supporting a few lingering showers in
these areas.

Anticipate small craft conditions for wave heights for much of
the outer coastal waters. Otherwise, moderate strength northerly
winds for most of the inner channels, though Clarence Strait may
flip out of the S Tuesday night as the low itself arrives. Minimal
changes were made to the forecast. Increased cloud cover over the
S panhandle through Tuesday night, and adjusted wind direction in
Clarence Strait, along with a few minor changes to surrounding
areas. Extended the chances of precipitation a little bit further
north into Juneau for Tuesday afternoon, but maintained them on
the lower end of the scale, and still think that there`s a good
chance some clearing will take place across much of the northern
panhandle - especially Tuesday evening onwards.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday morning / Upper level
low exiting gulf moving into British Columbia Wednesday, a minor
ridge moves into the area. The next big frontal band will spread
into the area especially the southern panhandle Saturday and into
Sunday. Mid to long range forecast is that a system will sweep
into the panhandle from the south.

Have gone with a drier forecast into Thursday and into Saturday, so
dried the forecast some, and decreased the clouds some.  Break is
only 2 days it looks like rain will be returning to the forecast
over the weekend. Damp weather still likely into early next week,
however there is a trend that most of the wet weather will be over
the south with drier conditions farther north.

Larger changes at the later period may be limited as model
discrepancies and smaller feature has national center leaning
towards a ensemble solution.

&&

.AVIATION...Primarily VFR to MVFR conditions across the panhandle
through Tuesday, with a fairly high cloud ceiling which will
slowly give way to clearing skies Tuesday evening across the
much of the northern half of the area. While occasional periods
of IFR may occur as ceilings lower due to a passing shower
(especially in the southern half of the area), expect these to be
the exception, as opposed to the norm. Winds largely remain in the
5 to 10 kt range, though winds up to 15 kt kt are possible for
southern panhandle sites.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...PRB

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