267
FXUS63 KAPX 031931
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and mild weather through Saturday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night.

- Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will lift across Ontario today as the parent
mid/upper-level low pivots toward Hudson Bay tonight. The associated
surface cyclone will also trek across Ontario and over Hudson Bay by
late tonight/early Saturday morning. A cold front extending
southeast of the system center will keep pushing east of the area
this afternoon and evening, leaving relatively high pressure in
place through Saturday.

Forecast Details:

Quiet and mild weather through Saturday -- Remaining showers will
end this afternoon as the aforementioned front continues to slide
out of northern Michigan, leaving sunny skies in place for the
remainder of the day. Clear/sunny skies will stay in place through
Saturday morning, promoting efficient radiational cooling overnight
to drop temperatures well into the 40s -- and even upper 30s across
typical interior cold spots. Southerly flow will strengthen through
the morning, bringing warm/moist air northward to help temperatures
climb back into the low to mid 70s for areas of northern lower
Michigan away from the lakeshores. Cooler temperatures in the 60s
are anticipated across the eastern U.P. and those close to the
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Longwave troughing currently spanned across North America with
embedded height disturbances keep weather mild and active at
times for the entirety of the long term forecast period.
Midlevel low pressure with attached troughing currently over
the central CONUS/Canadian boarder and over the Alaskan Bay will
be the main two sources of energy for the Great Lakes region
this weekend and next week.

The first trough over the central CONUS will progress towards the
southern shore of Hudson Bay and pushing a shortwave trough
through the Great Lakes region by Saturday evening. A cold front
will proceed to deliver convective driven showers with the
chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Attention switches focus on Tuesday when the second
trough makes it way to the Northern Rockies and stalls over the
region for the remainder of next week.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night: A weak
cold front will deliver a line of showers to the CWA Saturday
night with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder remaining
possible. Weak convection tied to the line will have no severe
threat associated with the system, but areas across northern
Michigan can expect a soaking of rain as QPF amounts remain
around a general tenth or two. Higher amounts of liquid remain
possible as more convective showers could produce some higher
totals but no overall impactful weather is expected.

Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with
showers and thunderstorms: Sunday and Monday remain dry as
midlevel shortwave ridging pushes quiet weather into the Great
Lakes region. Low dew points do raise concern for potential fire
weather conditions, especially this Monday, but weaker winds
keep the conditions questionable ahead of aformentioned midlevel
low pressure returning showers and storms this Tuesday. Current
guidance is depicting favorable conditions of strong
thunderstorms as dewpoints push themselves into the upper 50s
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of cold front. To early
to determine severity of this line, but will continue to
monitor this feature with later model runs.

Midlevel low pressure/troughing will stall over the northern plains
the remainder of the forecast period, continuing lingering showers
at times across the Great Lakes region for the rest of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Aside from IFR/MVFR CIGs lingering for another hour or two, VFR
conditions are anticipated across most northern Michigan TAF
sites through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies behind
the passing cold front. The exception to this looks to be APN as
BR/FG may settle in later tonight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, northwest winds around 5-10 kts with occasional gusts
to 15 kts will go calm tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC