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000
FXUS61 KBGM 222309
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
709 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system and associated cold front will bring
scattered rain showers to the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Dry and seasonable weather will finish out the work
week, with additional rain showers arriving in time for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

640 PM Update...

Made some minor changes to minimum RH values for tomorrow and
also went ahead and issued an SPS for fire weather. See Fire
Weather AFD section below.

Previous Discussion...
Clear skies will continue through the remainder of the day and
into the evening, with high clouds increasing later tonight.
Winds will shift around to the south by morning, and with a
tightening pressure gradient and deeper mixing tomorrow, winds
could gust around 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. RH values will
get a modest boost from the southerly flow, with Min RH values
looking to range from 25 to 35 percent in the afternoon.

The drier low level air mass will delay the onset of rain
showers. A few could work into the Finger Lakes before dark,
but most of the rain will hold off until the overnight hours
and into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
150 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the potential
for rain showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms early in
the day Wednesday with cooler and drier air moving in Wed night
into Thursday.

Broad upper level trough will be rotating through the Northeast
U.S. Wednesday morning with an area of stratiform rain on the
front end of the system. Modest, shallow isentropic lift within
a relatively deep, moist air mass and weak upper level forcing
will produce this wide area of rain Wed morning. Cold air moving
in behind this feature will push in quickly aloft, which will
induce an area of steep mid level lapse rates during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The air mass is not expected
to be very unstable given the presence of rain and a fair amount
of cloud cover. The most favorable time and location of weak
instability will be from the Poconos and southern Catskills
farther to the east and southeast in the afternoon. Given the
cold air aloft and the potential for mixing later in the day,
the main threats will likely be small hail and gusty winds in
any storms that do form and mature.

The cooler and drier air is expected to move in quickly from
the northwest later in the day Wednesday. Surface temperatures
will hold steady in the mid 40s to mid/upper 50s...and then
slowly drop back into the lower to mid 40s by the late
afternoon/evening hours. The large-scale wind field will be
notable during the day with sustained NW winds 15 to 20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph, especially across the Finger Lakes. An
abundance of clearing should occur Wed night, which will combine
with light/calm winds to allow temperatures to fall into the
mid 20s and lower 30s. The coldest air is expected to occur in
the valley locations that decouple from the boundary layer. The
quiet weather will persist into Thursday and the cooler air mass
will remain, but plenty of sun and a high sun angle will allow
high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 50s close to
60. Winds will be substantially lower on Thursday, which will be
a nice relief from the day before.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
150 PM update...

Large scale upper level ridging will move across the region Thu
night into Friday, which will keep weather conditions very
quiet and dry. Temperatures will slowly rebound with morning
lows Friday starting out in the lower to mid 30s before rising
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The next deep low pressure system
is expected to move into the Upper Midwest late Friday and
begin to sweep a warm front north through the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front may have a difficult time producing rain into the slow-
moving dry air mass in the Northeast. Only minor deviation from
the ensemble blend was to delay the onset of the higher chances
of rain until later in the morning hours on Saturday.

This incoming warm front will not only bring increase rain
chances and clouds, but also notably warmer temperatures...
especially on Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will hover around
average for this time of year with scattered rain showers, but
on Sunday, the really warm air is expected to push farther north
and push temperatures into the 70s for nearly all of the
forecast are of northeast PA and central NY. This warm and
unstable air mass will also trigger the potential for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day. The warm
air looks to remain in place going into at least the early part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies will persist into the evening hours, with high
clouds increasing late tonight into Tuesday morning. Clouds will
gradually thicken with lowering ceilings later in the afternoon,
but VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

Expect NW winds with a few gusts around 20 knots this afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will turn southerly
on Tuesday, and become increasingly gusty in the afternoon, with
gusts topping out above 25 knots at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again on Tuesday.
On Monday, minimum RH values dropped into the teens in some
areas and wind gusts topped out over 20 mph. These conditions
on Monday allowed fine fuels to dry out. The drier fuels
combined with the fire weather conditions expected Tuesday
warrants an SPS for all of our New York Counties.

Winds on Tuesday are expected to be gusting at 20 to 30 mph and
min RH values have a chance to dip as low as 20 percent in some
areas for a few hours during the mid to late afternoon. However,
min RH values will be in the 25 to 30 percent range for most
of the region. After coordination with NYSDEC, the decision was
made to issue a special weather statement for New York, however
at this time, an SPS for northeast PA will not be issued based
on coordination with PA DCNR.

Finally, model RH values show some recovery during the late
afternoon into the early evening with the south-southwest winds.
However, most models bring moisture in too quickly in these
situations, so have kept RH values lower well into the early
evening hours at this time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...JTC/MPH
FIRE WEATHER...