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000
FXUS64 KBMX 211118
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

Round one of showers and storms have exited the area, with round
two beginning to work into the southwest. Look for showers and an
isolated thunderstorm to spread north and east through the morning
hours with clearing behind it. All of this precipitation has been
on the backside of the cold front that is now from Mobile to
Auburn and sliding south and east. By midday, the rain will be
ending across much of the area, with only the southeast remaining.
High pressure will build in behind the rain keeping the area cool
for the day. We will see a cold night across the area compared to
seasonal temperatures. Look for some upper 30s in the north with
40s elsewhere. While temperatures will be close to the frost
potential, we should be too dry along with winds remaining around
5 to 7 mph overnight. Monday should be sunny with high pressure
overhead. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

We can expect a chilly Monday night and Tuesday morning as high
pressure becomes centered over the region. Clear skies and very
light winds will promote strong radiational cooling with lows
mainly in the lower to middle 40s, though the coldest spots
should see upper 30s. Dry conditions are expected to persist
through the end of the long term period, initially supported by
dry west-northwest 500 mb flow through Thursday. Thereafter, a
notable ridge is expected to take hold over the Southeast CONUS
and Gulf of Mexico. This should deflect any shortwaves and keep
conditions dry through Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

Round 2 is beginning to already work out of Alabama. TCL will
likely see the ending of the persistent precipitation after 13z.
MGM and TOI have the best chances at seeing some lightning, but
that is even to low to mention. Periods of MVFR and IFR conditions
with the rain. Clearing begins by 16z across the central and 19z
across the east and south. Winds will gusty at times this afternoon
to around 18 to 20 kts. Winds begin to drop to less than 7 kts
after 3z along with clearing skies.

NOTE: Added AMD NOT SKED for ASN due to the sky no longer being
reported.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rainfall is expected through midday, drier air arriving
this afternoon, with rain ending. RH values on Monday are
expected to be in the 25 to 35 percent range with northerly 20
foot winds of 6 to 10 mph. 20ft winds become southerly on Tuesday,
at 6 to 10mph, with minimum RH values in the 28 to 40 percent
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  39  68  38 /  40   0   0   0
Anniston    60  40  68  42 /  60   0   0   0
Birmingham  61  41  67  44 /  40   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  63  42  68  43 /  40   0   0   0
Calera      60  41  67  44 /  50   0   0   0
Auburn      60  45  68  47 /  90   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  43  69  44 /  90   0   0   0
Troy        62  44  70  45 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...16