Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260855
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
354 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024

A line of thunderstorms is pushing across Central Alabama
this morning, producing occasional wind gusts of 30-40mph.
Gradient wind gusts remain strong ahead of the line, with gusts up
to 30mph. There is little to no instability ahead of the line,
and recent radar trends show a generally increase in storm
intensity. A strong storm, and gradient wind gust, remain
possible, severe storms are unlikely.

This line will continue to push eastward this morning, with
locations west of I-65 dry by mid day. The actual surface front
and cooler air will lag behind the rainfall, and not arrive
until this evening in the northwest. If skies clear this
afternoon, could see highs in the low to mid 70s across the west.
Cooler air arrives tonight as high pressure spreads southeastward
through the Plains. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest
to lower 50s southeast.

A shortwave rounding the base of the broader upper level trough
will strengthen a surface low along the exiting front Wednesday.
There is a chance a few showers could spill back into extreme
southeast Central Alabama during the afternoon, but most of the
activity will be east and south of the forecast area. Highs
Wednesday will be in the mid 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024

A mid- to upper-level trough will swing through the eastern CONUS
Thursday with high pressure moving east across the Mississippi
Valley. Thus, Thursday will be the coolest day of the long-term
period with highs in the 60s and 70s. Thereafter, a broad ridge is
forecast to develop across the central and eastern CONUS. We`ll be
on a warming trend as a result, with highs in the 70s on Friday,
approaching 80 on Saturday, and the 80s for early next week. We`ll
remain dry for much of this period meaning this will be some of the
best weekend weather we`ve had in a while. A front is progged to
move toward the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, bring some rain/storm
chances.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024

A line of showers and some thunderstorms will move across central
Alabama overnight into Tuesday morning. This area is expected to
slow down as it moves toward I-65, so the timing is a bit tricky.
The area will move into TCL/BHM/EET within the next few hours.
Added a tempo for these locations where it appeared at this time
the best chance for thunder. The instability will be to the south,
so will have to monitor activity toward MGM/TOI with time. Winds
will remain quite gusty ahead of the line and will increase in
the vicinity of the line. Some gusts close to 35 kts are expected.
The wind direction will be southeast much of the period before
becoming light after 00z. Since the winds at 2k feet will
increase just above 50kts, held the LLWS for BHM and added EET.
Ceilings start MVFR at spots while others will be VFR. This
quickly changes as all areas drop to MVFR/IFR by 09z. The showers
and ceilings will hang on for several hours behind the line but
clearing begins by afternoon west to east.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An area of rain and thunderstorms will continue eastward today,
with rainfall ending from west to east through the day.
Southeasterly 20ft winds remain elevated this morning ahead of the
area of rainfall, at 15-20mph. 20ft winds diminish through the
day on Tuesday, as the rain ends, with variability in the
direction. The cold front arrives tonight, with winds becoming
northwesterly at 5-8mph.

Drier air arrives by Wednesday, with minimum RH values in the 35
to 45 percent range Wednesday afternoon. Thursday, 20ft winds
increase from the north at 9-12mph, with minimum RH values below
30 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  43  68  43 / 100  10  10  10
Anniston    69  47  70  45 / 100  10  10  10
Birmingham  70  47  68  44 /  90   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  73  47  69  44 /  80   0   0   0
Calera      70  47  70  45 /  90   0   0  10
Auburn      68  51  73  48 / 100  20  10  20
Montgomery  71  49  73  47 /  90  10  10  10
Troy        72  51  75  48 / 100  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Pickens-
Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...75


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