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000
FXUS64 KBMX 180614
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024

High pressure currently remains centered over the area this
morning. Meanwhile some low level moisture is working its way
north. Meanwhile an outflow boundary worked down to near the I-20
corridor. All this will result in low clouds and some patchy dense
fog. We will be keeping an eye on the trends to see if any areas
will need a dense fog advisory before sunrise. The high pressure
system will slowly slide south and east during the day. A weak
disturbance will move northeast into the area along the former
outflow boundary left over, near the I-20 corridor. This combined
with the heating of the day, will likely result in some scattered
storms along and north of I-20, perhaps as far south as the I-85
corridor. With the proximity to the high there remains some
subsidence aloft that will keep most of the storms under control
this afternoon. A few of the storms could potentially be strong
with gusty winds at times. Therefore will leave any mention of
widespread severe storms out of the HWO for this afternoon.

As we work into the evening, some of the CAMS are showing a MCS
developing near the Missouri Bootheel and tracking southeast. The
remnants of the MCS will likely impact north Alabama after
midnight, and increased rain chances for areas north of I-20.
Expect the MCS to be in a weakening state as it moves into north
Alabama, and will continue to not highlight any severe threat at
this time. This outflow will leave a boundary across north
Alabama on Friday. A cold front will move into northwest Alabama
Friday morning. It is unclear which boundary will be the focus for
diurnal convection, but there is enough potential instability for
some stronger storms Friday afternoon, mainly along and north of
I-20. However a strong 700 mb subsidence zone may prevent the
development from being widespread. Again with the uncertainty will
leave any mention of severe weather out at this time.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

A lull in the activity Friday night and into Saturday morning,
but the cold front will continue to push southward and end up
across far south Alabama Saturday morning. Upper level forcing
will increase along the I-20 corridor on Saturday as a short wave
trough over the southwest United States ejects eastward. Expect
scattered showers and isolated storms to increase north of the
stationary cold front on Saturday, with more widespread rain
Saturday night and Sunday. The low levels of the atmosphere north
of I-85 will be rather stable Saturday night and Sunday, with
highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 50s northwest to upper 60s
near I-85. Removed mention of thunderstorms for areas north of
I-85. The rain will exit east Alabama Sunday evening with rain
free conditions Monday and Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024

Low level moisture has worked into the area and is helping with
the development of fog and low level clouds. Through 7 to 8z we
will be in a transition period in which we go between VFR and
MVFR. By 8 to 10z many sites will drop to MVFR, with 10 to 13z
transitioning between MVFR and brief IFR. By 15 to 16z most of the
MVFR conditions will burn off. A few showers and storms will be
possible across the northern sites between 21z and 03z, so
included a prob30 for these areas. Will monitor the trends and may
need to add another round of showers/storms by the end of the next
cycle of TAFs.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible in the northern
half of the area this afternoon, with the best chances north of
the I-20 corridor. Increasing rain chances late tonight for areas
north of I-20. Min RH values 40-55% this afternoon and Friday
afternoon, with 20 foot winds should be light and variable
this morning becoming south 5-7 mph by the afternoon. winds will
be shifting to a more westerly direction on Friday but remain less
than 7 mph. Max RH values tonight will be again right around
100%. Rain chances remain in the forecast through Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  62  83  57 /  30  60  50  10
Anniston    85  64  83  61 /  20  40  40  10
Birmingham  85  65  83  61 /  30  40  40  10
Tuscaloosa  85  64  84  61 /  30  50  40  10
Calera      84  65  83  62 /  20  30  40  10
Auburn      83  65  85  64 /  20  20  20   0
Montgomery  85  64  87  64 /  20  10  20   0
Troy        85  64  88  64 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16