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000
FXUS65 KBOI 152017
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
217 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Winds have
reached advisory levels across southern Idaho this afternoon
with sustained winds of around 30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Winds are
expected to gradually subside after sunset. Isolated showers in
SW Idaho associated with an upper low to our east will end this
evening. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through Tuesday. An
upper trough will send a cold front through the region Tuesday
night as the trough moves across the northern Rockies. Moisture
will be limited to the far northern areas for a 30 to 50 percent
chance of showers in the West Central Mountains on Wednesday.
Gusty winds will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, but are not
expected to be as strong as today. Temperatures trend cooler
each day, with valley highs only in the 50s on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...There is strong
agreement among both operational and ensemble models that a
broad trough of low pressure will settle over central Canada
through Friday. This is projected to place generally dry
northwest flow over Idaho and Oregon, with seasonably cool
temperatures and dry conditions. A short-wave ridge of high
pressure is then anticipated for Saturday, just ahead of another
area of low pressure that could impact the region Sunday into
early next week. Under the ridge on Saturday forecast model data
indicates a 60-70% chance of high temps of 70 or higher, and a
10-15% chance of 80 or higher for the lower valleys. Beyond
Saturday, significant uncertainty enters the forecast as models
grapple with the speed at which the next system moves inland off
the Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated to scattered showers over south-
central Idaho this evening, potentially impacting KJER/KTWF.
Snow levels 6000-7500 ft MSL. Periods of MVFR conditions and
mountain obscuration in showers. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt
with gusts to 25-30 kt by 15Z/Mon, except 25-35 kt with gusts up
to 45 kt near KMUO/KGNG/KJER/KTWF through 02Z. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: N-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mid level clouds lingering through mid afternoon,
then becoming scattered. Surface winds NW 10-20 kt with gusts to
around 25 kt, decreasing to NW 8-10kt overnight. VFR expected
Tuesday with WNW winds prominent, and gusts over 20kt possible
after 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Owyhee River below Owyhee Dam is expected to
remain above minor flood stage through Friday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ014>016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
HYDROLOGY....BW