Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
403
UXUS97 KBOU 110016
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1815 MDT Friday, May 10, 2024
This forecast is for Saturday, May 11, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 57.2 F/14.0 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 354 ft/min (1.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13025 ft MSL (7732 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 68.0 F/20.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1000 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1200 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11045 ft MSL (5752 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 05/12....... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 34804 ft MSL (29511 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Sunday 05/12.......... Poor
Remarks... Scattered afternoon showers and storms on Saturday, warmer
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:47:45 / 20:03:57 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 16 min 12 sec (856 min 12 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:51 MDT... 68.37 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/11/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 10665 ft MSL (5372 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13566 ft MSL (8273 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13457 ft MSL (8164 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.5
K index......................... +13.7
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.6 -68.1 270 28 14 1.6 0.9 M M M M M
45000 -53.4 -64.1 260 27 14 -0.8 -0.5 M M M M M
40000 -54.4 -65.9 230 28 15 -0.7 -0.4 M M M M M
38000 -54.2 -65.6 235 34 18 1.1 0.6 M M M M M
36000 -53.6 -64.5 240 43 22 1.1 0.6 M M M M M
34000 -52.4 -62.3 245 49 25 5.4 2.9 M M M M M
32000 -49.2 -56.6 240 41 21 5.3 2.9 M M M M M
30000 -44.8 -48.6 230 34 17 8.9 4.9 30.2 86.4 7.7 M M
29000 -42.1 -43.8 225 32 16 8.9 4.9 29.8 85.6 7.5 M M
28000 -39.5 -39.1 215 30 15 8.9 4.9 29.5 85.1 7.3 M M
27000 -36.9 -34.4 215 28 15 7.9 4.3 29.2 84.5 7.1 M M
26000 -34.5 -30.1 215 27 14 8.0 4.4 28.4 83.1 6.6 M M
25000 -32.1 -25.8 220 26 13 8.0 4.4 27.8 82.0 6.2 M M
24000 -29.7 -21.5 220 25 13 8.0 4.4 27.2 81.0 5.8 M M
23000 -27.3 -17.1 225 24 12 8.0 4.4 26.5 79.7 5.2 M M
22000 -25.0 -13.0 230 23 12 8.0 4.4 25.9 78.6 4.8 M M
21000 -22.5 -8.5 235 23 12 8.5 4.7 25.3 77.6 4.4 M M
20000 -20.0 -4.0 235 22 11 8.4 4.6 24.8 76.7 4.0 M M
19500 -18.8 -1.8 235 21 11 8.4 4.6 24.6 76.3 3.8 M M
19000 -17.5 0.5 240 20 10 8.5 4.7 24.4 75.9 3.6 M M
18500 -16.3 2.7 240 19 10 8.1 4.5 24.2 75.5 3.4 M M
18000 -15.1 4.8 235 17 9 8.2 4.5 23.9 75.0 3.2 M M
17500 -13.9 7.0 235 15 8 8.2 4.5 23.6 74.6 3.0 M M
17000 -12.6 9.3 235 14 7 8.3 4.6 23.4 74.1 2.8 M M
16500 -11.4 11.5 235 12 6 8.4 4.6 23.2 73.7 2.6 M M
16000 -10.1 13.8 235 11 5 8.3 4.5 22.9 73.2 2.4 M M
15500 -8.9 16.0 235 10 5 8.3 4.6 22.7 72.8 2.2 M M
15000 -7.1 19.2 230 9 4 7.6 4.1 22.2 72.0 1.7 M M
14500 -6.0 21.2 225 8 4 7.7 4.2 21.8 71.3 1.4 M M
14000 -5.0 23.0 220 8 4 6.3 3.4 21.4 70.5 1.0 M M
13500 -4.1 24.6 210 9 5 6.5 3.6 20.8 69.5 0.4 M M
13000 -3.2 26.2 205 9 5 5.7 3.1 20.2 68.4 -0.1 545 2.8
12500 -2.4 27.7 200 10 5 5.8 3.2 19.6 67.2 -0.8 506 2.6
12000 -1.6 29.1 200 10 5 4.8 2.6 18.9 66.0 -1.5 469 2.4
11500 -1.0 30.2 195 9 5 4.8 2.7 18.1 64.5 -2.3 435 2.2
11000 -0.3 31.5 190 8 4 4.4 2.4 17.3 63.1 -3.2 401 2.0
10500 0.3 32.5 185 7 4 4.9 2.7 16.4 61.5 -4.0 368 1.9
10250 0.6 33.1 185 7 3 2.3 1.2 16.0 60.8 -4.5 351 1.8
10000 0.7 33.3 185 7 3 4.0 2.2 15.3 59.6 -5.1 340 1.7
9750 1.2 34.2 180 6 3 7.6 4.2 15.1 59.2 -5.3 318 1.6
9500 1.7 35.1 175 6 3 7.2 3.9 14.9 58.8 -5.6 295 1.5
9250 2.2 36.0 170 5 3 5.4 3.0 14.7 58.4 -5.8 273 1.4
9000 2.5 36.5 170 5 3 4.8 2.7 14.3 57.7 -6.2 256 1.3
8750 3.0 37.4 170 5 3 8.0 4.4 14.0 57.2 -6.5 234 1.2
8500 3.6 38.5 170 4 2 8.2 4.5 13.9 57.0 -6.6 209 1.1
8250 4.1 39.4 170 4 2 6.3 3.4 13.7 56.7 -6.9 185 0.9
8000 4.5 40.1 175 4 2 5.2 2.9 13.4 56.1 -7.2 166 0.8
7750 5.0 41.0 180 3 2 7.0 3.9 13.1 55.6 -7.5 145 0.7
7500 5.5 41.9 195 3 1 6.7 3.7 12.9 55.3 -7.7 122 0.6
7250 5.9 42.6 205 3 1 5.0 2.8 12.6 54.7 -8.1 102 0.5
7000 6.3 43.3 215 2 1 5.0 2.7 12.2 54.0 -8.5 84 0.4
6750 6.6 43.9 225 2 1 5.4 2.9 11.9 53.4 -8.8 66 0.3
6500 7.0 44.6 230 3 1 3.9 2.1 11.5 52.8 -9.2 47 0.2
6250 7.2 45.0 230 3 2 2.1 1.2 11.0 51.8 -9.8 34 0.2
6000 7.4 45.3 235 3 2 3.7 2.0 10.5 50.8 -10.3 21 0.1
5750 7.6 45.7 235 3 2 -0.7 -0.4 9.9 49.9 -10.9 8 0.0
5500 7.1 44.8 225 3 2 -12.9 -7.1 8.7 47.7 -12.2 16 0.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/11/2024 at 0900 MDT | 05/11/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.6 | CAPE... +86.0 LI... -0.1
CINH... -0.9 K Index... +14.6 | CINH... -32.6 K Index... +20.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.6 -68.1 270 25 13 1.5 0.8 | -55.8 -68.4 265 23 12 1.3 0.7
45000 -53.4 -64.1 255 24 12 -0.3 -0.2 | -54.0 -65.2 255 24 12 -0.3 -0.2
40000 -53.8 -64.8 235 31 16 -0.2 -0.1 | -54.3 -65.7 240 33 17 -0.2 -0.1
38000 -53.6 -64.5 235 38 19 0.5 0.3 | -54.0 -65.2 235 39 20 1.0 0.6
36000 -53.3 -63.9 235 46 24 0.5 0.3 | -53.3 -63.9 235 46 24 1.0 0.6
34000 -52.3 -62.1 235 51 26 5.6 3.0 | -52.0 -61.6 230 51 26 5.9 3.2
32000 -49.0 -56.2 225 45 23 5.5 3.0 | -48.4 -55.1 225 48 24 6.0 3.3
30000 -44.6 -48.3 220 39 20 8.8 4.8 | -43.8 -46.8 220 44 23 8.7 4.7
29000 -42.0 -43.6 215 36 19 8.8 4.8 | -41.2 -42.2 215 44 23 8.6 4.7
28000 -39.4 -38.9 215 33 17 8.8 4.8 | -38.7 -37.7 215 43 22 8.6 4.7
27000 -36.8 -34.2 215 31 16 8.5 4.7 | -36.1 -33.0 210 42 22 8.3 4.6
26000 -34.2 -29.6 215 28 15 8.5 4.7 | -33.6 -28.5 215 39 20 8.3 4.6
25000 -31.7 -25.1 215 26 14 8.5 4.7 | -31.1 -24.0 215 36 18 8.4 4.6
24000 -29.2 -20.6 215 24 12 7.8 4.3 | -28.6 -19.5 220 32 17 8.1 4.5
23000 -26.9 -16.4 220 23 12 7.5 4.1 | -26.2 -15.2 220 29 15 8.1 4.4
22000 -24.7 -12.5 225 22 11 7.6 4.1 | -23.8 -10.8 220 26 13 8.1 4.4
21000 -22.4 -8.3 225 21 11 8.0 4.4 | -21.5 -6.7 220 23 12 7.3 4.0
20000 -20.1 -4.2 230 19 10 7.9 4.4 | -19.3 -2.7 225 21 11 7.4 4.1
19500 -18.9 -2.0 230 18 9 7.9 4.4 | -18.2 -0.8 225 20 10 7.4 4.1
19000 -17.7 0.1 235 17 9 7.9 4.4 | -17.1 1.2 225 19 10 7.4 4.1
18500 -16.5 2.3 235 16 8 8.1 4.4 | -16.0 3.2 230 18 9 7.7 4.2
18000 -15.3 4.5 240 15 8 8.1 4.4 | -14.9 5.2 230 16 8 7.7 4.2
17500 -14.1 6.6 240 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -13.7 7.3 230 14 7 7.7 4.2
17000 -12.9 8.8 240 14 7 8.4 4.6 | -12.6 9.3 230 11 6 7.8 4.3
16500 -11.0 12.2 240 12 6 8.2 4.5 | -11.4 11.5 225 9 5 7.8 4.3
16000 -9.8 14.4 235 11 6 8.1 4.5 | -9.7 14.5 220 6 3 7.7 4.2
15500 -8.6 16.5 230 9 5 8.0 4.4 | -8.6 16.5 210 5 3 7.7 4.2
15000 -7.4 18.7 215 8 4 7.4 4.1 | -7.4 18.7 200 5 3 8.0 4.4
14500 -6.3 20.7 205 8 4 7.5 4.1 | -6.2 20.8 185 6 3 8.1 4.4
14000 -5.3 22.5 190 9 5 7.1 3.9 | -5.1 22.8 180 7 4 7.1 3.9
13500 -4.2 24.4 190 10 5 7.2 3.9 | -4.0 24.8 175 8 4 7.3 4.0
13000 -3.2 26.2 185 12 6 6.7 3.7 | -3.0 26.6 170 10 5 6.4 3.5
12500 -2.3 27.9 185 12 6 6.8 3.7 | -2.1 28.2 175 11 6 6.5 3.5
12000 -1.4 29.5 190 13 7 4.9 2.7 | -1.3 29.7 180 13 6 5.2 2.9
11500 -0.8 30.6 190 12 6 4.7 2.6 | -0.6 30.9 180 13 7 5.0 2.8
11000 -0.1 31.8 190 11 6 4.4 2.4 | 0.1 32.2 180 13 7 5.6 3.1
10500 0.5 32.9 190 11 5 4.9 2.7 | 0.9 33.6 175 12 6 6.7 3.7
10250 0.8 33.4 190 10 5 2.3 1.3 | 1.3 34.3 175 12 6 2.0 1.1
10000 0.9 33.6 190 10 5 3.9 2.2 | 1.3 34.3 170 11 6 4.0 2.2
9750 1.4 34.5 185 10 5 7.5 4.1 | 1.9 35.4 170 11 5 9.8 5.4
9500 1.9 35.4 185 9 5 6.9 3.8 | 2.6 36.7 170 10 5 8.9 4.9
9250 2.3 36.1 185 9 5 5.6 3.1 | 3.2 37.8 170 9 5 6.7 3.7
9000 2.7 36.9 185 9 4 4.9 2.7 | 3.6 38.5 165 9 4 7.0 3.8
8750 3.1 37.6 185 8 4 6.7 3.7 | 4.3 39.7 165 8 4 10.8 5.9
8500 3.6 38.5 180 8 4 6.9 3.8 | 5.1 41.2 165 8 4 10.7 5.9
8250 4.1 39.4 180 7 4 6.0 3.3 | 5.9 42.6 165 8 4 8.8 4.8
8000 4.5 40.1 180 7 4 5.3 2.9 | 6.5 43.7 165 8 4 7.9 4.3
7750 4.9 40.8 180 6 3 6.4 3.5 | 7.2 45.0 165 7 4 10.9 6.0
7500 5.4 41.7 180 6 3 6.0 3.3 | 8.0 46.4 165 7 4 10.9 6.0
7250 5.8 42.4 180 5 3 4.8 2.6 | 8.7 47.7 165 7 4 8.7 4.8
7000 6.1 43.0 180 5 3 4.1 2.2 | 9.3 48.7 165 7 4 7.9 4.3
6750 6.5 43.7 185 5 2 7.7 4.2 | 10.0 50.0 165 7 3 12.2 6.7
6500 7.2 45.0 190 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 11.1 52.0 165 7 3 12.5 6.8
6250 7.8 46.0 190 3 2 8.2 4.5 | 11.8 53.2 170 6 3 9.8 5.4
6000 8.4 47.1 190 3 1 7.6 4.1 | 12.6 54.7 170 6 3 9.4 5.1
5750 9.1 48.4 190 2 1 11.8 6.5 | 13.3 55.9 170 5 3 14.0 7.7
5500 10.3 50.5 195 2 1 21.9 12.0 | 14.9 58.8 170 5 3 27.9 15.3
05/11/2024 at 1500 MDT | 05/11/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +440.9 LI... -1.9 | CAPE... +340.3 LI... -1.7
CINH... -9.2 K Index... +22.7 | CINH... -25.3 K Index... +26.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.2 -67.4 270 24 12 1.3 0.7 | -56.1 -69.0 280 23 12 1.9 1.0
45000 -53.3 -63.9 265 24 12 -0.1 -0.0 | -53.3 -63.9 275 22 11 0.4 0.2
40000 -53.3 -63.9 245 31 16 -0.0 -0.0 | -52.6 -62.7 255 25 13 0.5 0.3
38000 -53.2 -63.8 235 36 18 0.5 0.3 | -52.8 -63.0 245 27 14 -0.9 -0.5
36000 -52.9 -63.2 230 42 22 0.5 0.3 | -53.3 -63.9 235 30 15 -0.9 -0.5
34000 -51.8 -61.2 225 46 24 6.1 3.4 | -52.7 -62.9 230 32 17 7.9 4.3
32000 -48.2 -54.8 225 41 21 6.1 3.4 | -48.0 -54.4 230 28 15 7.9 4.3
30000 -43.5 -46.3 220 37 19 8.7 4.8 | -42.4 -44.3 235 25 13 8.9 4.9
29000 -40.9 -41.6 220 36 19 8.7 4.8 | -39.8 -39.6 230 24 12 8.9 4.9
28000 -38.3 -36.9 215 36 19 8.7 4.8 | -37.1 -34.8 230 23 12 8.9 4.9
27000 -35.7 -32.3 215 36 18 8.5 4.7 | -34.5 -30.1 230 23 12 8.0 4.4
26000 -33.2 -27.8 215 36 18 8.5 4.7 | -32.1 -25.8 225 24 12 8.0 4.4
25000 -30.6 -23.1 210 35 18 8.5 4.7 | -29.7 -21.5 225 24 12 8.0 4.4
24000 -28.1 -18.6 210 35 18 7.9 4.4 | -27.3 -17.1 220 24 13 7.8 4.3
23000 -25.8 -14.4 210 32 16 7.7 4.2 | -25.1 -13.2 215 22 12 7.7 4.2
22000 -23.5 -10.3 210 29 15 7.7 4.2 | -22.8 -9.0 210 21 11 7.7 4.2
21000 -21.3 -6.3 210 25 13 7.4 4.1 | -20.5 -4.9 205 19 10 7.1 3.9
20000 -19.1 -2.4 205 20 10 7.5 4.1 | -18.5 -1.3 200 17 9 7.1 3.9
19500 -18.0 -0.4 200 17 9 7.5 4.1 | -17.4 0.7 195 16 8 7.1 3.9
19000 -16.9 1.6 195 15 8 7.5 4.1 | -16.4 2.5 190 15 8 7.1 3.9
18500 -15.8 3.6 185 13 7 7.4 4.1 | -15.4 4.3 185 15 7 7.1 3.9
18000 -14.7 5.5 185 11 6 7.4 4.0 | -14.3 6.3 175 14 7 7.2 3.9
17500 -13.6 7.5 180 10 5 7.5 4.1 | -13.3 8.1 165 13 7 7.1 3.9
17000 -12.4 9.7 175 9 5 8.1 4.4 | -12.3 9.9 155 13 7 6.7 3.7
16500 -11.2 11.8 170 8 4 8.0 4.4 | -11.3 11.7 150 13 7 6.7 3.7
16000 -9.3 15.3 160 8 4 8.6 4.7 | -9.7 14.5 140 13 7 7.2 4.0
15500 -8.1 17.4 160 9 5 8.6 4.7 | -8.7 16.3 140 13 7 7.2 3.9
15000 -6.9 19.6 155 10 5 7.6 4.2 | -7.6 18.3 140 13 7 7.5 4.1
14500 -5.8 21.6 160 10 5 7.8 4.3 | -6.5 20.3 145 13 7 7.5 4.1
14000 -4.7 23.5 160 11 6 6.9 3.8 | -5.4 22.3 145 12 6 7.6 4.2
13500 -3.8 25.2 160 11 6 7.0 3.8 | -4.3 24.3 150 12 6 7.6 4.2
13000 -2.8 27.0 160 11 6 7.0 3.8 | -3.2 26.2 150 11 6 7.4 4.1
12500 -1.8 28.8 155 11 6 7.0 3.9 | -2.1 28.2 155 11 6 7.3 4.0
12000 -0.8 30.6 155 11 6 7.1 3.9 | -1.1 30.0 160 10 5 7.3 4.0
11500 0.3 32.5 155 10 5 7.1 3.9 | -0.0 32.0 170 10 5 7.2 4.0
11000 1.3 34.3 160 10 5 6.6 3.6 | 1.0 33.8 175 10 5 6.5 3.6
10500 2.3 36.1 160 9 5 5.5 3.0 | 1.9 35.4 180 9 5 5.4 2.9
10250 2.7 36.9 160 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 2.3 36.1 180 9 5 9.0 4.9
10000 3.7 38.7 160 8 4 11.4 6.2 | 3.1 37.6 180 9 5 9.5 5.2
9750 4.3 39.7 160 8 4 7.4 4.1 | 3.6 38.5 180 9 5 6.1 3.4
9500 4.9 40.8 160 8 4 9.1 5.0 | 4.1 39.4 175 9 4 7.5 4.1
9250 5.5 41.9 160 8 4 6.5 3.6 | 4.6 40.3 175 8 4 5.6 3.1
9000 5.9 42.6 155 8 4 8.1 4.4 | 4.9 40.8 170 8 4 6.4 3.5
8750 6.7 44.1 155 8 4 11.2 6.2 | 5.5 41.9 170 8 4 9.0 4.9
8500 7.5 45.5 155 8 4 11.0 6.0 | 6.2 43.2 170 8 4 8.8 4.9
8250 8.2 46.8 155 8 4 8.9 4.9 | 6.8 44.2 165 8 4 8.1 4.5
8000 8.8 47.8 155 8 4 7.6 4.2 | 7.4 45.3 165 8 4 7.7 4.2
7750 9.5 49.1 155 8 4 10.8 5.9 | 8.0 46.4 165 8 4 9.3 5.1
7500 10.3 50.5 155 8 4 11.6 6.3 | 8.7 47.7 165 8 4 10.4 5.7
7250 11.1 52.0 155 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 9.4 48.9 165 8 4 8.7 4.7
7000 11.8 53.2 155 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 10.0 50.0 165 8 4 7.3 4.0
6750 12.5 54.5 160 8 4 10.8 5.9 | 10.6 51.1 165 8 4 9.2 5.1
6500 13.3 55.9 160 8 4 11.4 6.3 | 11.3 52.3 165 7 4 9.9 5.4
6250 14.1 57.4 160 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 12.0 53.6 170 7 4 8.8 4.8
6000 14.9 58.8 160 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 12.6 54.7 170 7 4 8.4 4.6
5750 15.6 60.1 160 7 4 12.2 6.7 | 13.3 55.9 170 7 4 9.4 5.2
5500 16.9 62.4 160 7 4 22.6 12.4 | 14.1 57.4 175 7 3 12.9 7.1
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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