Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KBRO 220806
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Closed 500 mb low pressure currently over east Texas will
gradually shift into the Atlantic Seaboard during the period,
leaving the BRO CWFA in a nearly zonal mid-level flow. This will
produce limited cloud cover and dry weather for Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, although areas of fog may be an issue
across the region prior to sunrise Friday morning.

Meanwhile, temperature-wise, well above normal highs will occur
today, as surface winds oriented from roughly the west produce a bit
of downsloping effect off of the neighboring higher terrain of
Mexico. Fortunately, this effect will be short-lived, as surface
high pressure building south through the Lone Star State tonight
produces a flow from the north to northeast, allowing lows tonight
and highs on Saturday to be cooled into the near normal range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Mid-level ridging begins to shift eastward Saturday night as a deep
trough moves into the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure along
the Lower Texas Coast Saturday evening will move eastward across the
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This will allow easterly winds to turn
southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday. Low temperatures Saturday
night will range from the upper 50s across the northern ranchlands
to the low to mid 60s near the coast.

The next upstream trough settles over the Rockies fairly quickly
providing a quick return of southerly winds and warmer temperatures
on Sunday. Highs on Sunday are expected to reach the mid to upper
80s, except for the 70s along the coast. Also, a robust pressure
gradient develops as low pressure strengthens across the Plains.
A low level jet sets up along the coast Sunday into early Monday
driving breezy to windy southeasterly winds, currently very close
to Wind Advisory criteria across Cameron County. The NBM suggest
there is a medium to high chance (50-90%) of seeing wind gusts
over 40 mph across portions of the Rio Grande Valley, especially
near the coast.

A cold front arrives late Monday, with northerly winds continuing
into Tuesday, before turning more easterly on Wednesday. Monday will
be warm with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings behind the front will range from the mid 50s
to near 60 north to south across the CWA, with near normal highs.

Another quick moving mid-level trough moves into Rockies Thursday
turning our winds back to the southeast and edging our temperatures
and humidity upwards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Fog is beginning to develop at BRO and HRL due to calm winds, but
MFE is clear due to a light flow from the northwest. A mixture of
VFR, MVFR, and LIFR is anticipated for the overnight hours. For
Friday, full VFR will be on display with veering winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Today through Saturday: Moderate to breezy winds and generally
moderate seas will occur along the Lower Texas Coast during the
period. This will be due to surface high pressure building south
through the Lone Star State and then east along the Middle Texas
Coast. Although Small Craft Advisory is not expected, Small Craft
Exercise Caution may be needed tonight for the Gulf of Mexico
waters, especially between 20 and 60 nautical miles out.

Saturday night through Thursday...Light easterly flow Saturday night
will become southeasterly on Sunday as high pressure moves eastward.
An upstream low pressure area quickly strengthens over the Rockies
and Central Plains Sunday increasing south winds along the lower
Texas coast. Strong winds and building seas will develop on Sunday,
with adverse conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday. The next cold
front arrives late Monday with moderate northerly flow Monday night
into Tuesday. Winds will gradually turn easterly then southerly by
mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  62  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               92  58  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 92  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  65  72  66 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  62  75  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...66-Tomaselli


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.