748
FXUS62 KCHS 110259
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1059 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure
will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm
system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The cold front is readily visible on radar as a fine line moving
southward through the South Carolina counties, and will pass
into and through our Georgia counties after midnight. There is
a brief "surge" of northwest to north winds up near 20 or 25 mph
behind the front, but also a drop in temperatures of several
degrees.

We`re still showing slight chance PoPs roughly south of a line
from Springfield to Metter through about 12-1 AM.

Skies will clear through the night, perhaps allowing for
viewing of the aurora or Northern Lights, and the noticeable
change in the air mass will get temperatures down to the mid and
upper 50s inland, lower 60s closer to the ocean.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: A stout northwest flow will dominate aloft
as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Quiet, dry
conditions will prevail with forecast soundings showing modest
capping aloft with low net moisture values (PWATs <1"). A modest
west/northwest flow atop the boundary layer should delay/pin
the afternoon resultant sea breeze both afternoons. Low-level
thickness values support highs in the upper 70s/near 80 on
Saturday warming into the lower 80s on Sunday. Lows Saturday
night will drop into the mid- upper 50s inland with mid 60s at
the beaches with upper 50s/lower 60s inland and upper 60s/near
70 at the beaches Sunday night.

Monday: A warm front will begin to organize to the south and
move north into the area as a storm system develops to the west.
Isolated to scattered showers/tstms could develop near this
feature in the afternoon, but the bulk of anything meaningful
looks to remain south of the Altamaha River. Forecast soundings
north of the warm front are not overly unstable with meager
MLCAPE, positive LI`s with K- indices <30C noted, so conditions
do not look overly favorable for deep convection despite highs
warming into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Pops 20-30% look
reasonable during this time with any mention of thunder being
confined to mainly Southeast Georgia due to some uncertainty on
location/timing of the developing warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday Night and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase Monday
night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north and the region
becomes fully embedded within the warm sector of an approaching
storm system. Modest forcing for ascent ahead of a number of
southern stream impulses embedded ahead of a shortwave that digs
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will steadily increase
within an increasingly moist environment. There are a few model
signals that a large convective complex along the northeast Gulf
coast/Florida Panhandle could disrupt moisture transport into
the area which could limit the amount of convection over
Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia Tuesday. These
trends will have to be watched carefully. For now, a blend of
the NBM with the drier SuperBlend consensus was used to
construct pops. Pops 60-70% were highlighted for Monday night
with 80% pops for Tuesday. Lows Monday night will range from the
lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Highs
Tuesday will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s, limited by
extensive cloud cover and showers/tstms.

Wednesday and Thursday: Overall, rain chances will be lower for
Wednesday into Thursday, but some degree of convection can be
expected as a series of weak fronts/troughs move through the
Southeast States. Chance pops were highlighted during this time.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00Z
Sunday. Maybe a brief SHRA at KSAV early on as a cold front
moves through.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could
bring flight restrictions to the terminals Monday afternoon into
the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Isolated to scattered convection ahead of a cold front
will come to an end by 1 am, a few of which still could be
strong with gusty winds. Winds will shift to the N behind a cold
front that passes through, generally in the 15-20 kt range.
There certainly can be some gusts near 25 kt at times, but not
enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisories. Seas will mainly
around 3 or 4 feet, with some 5 footers on the outer Georgia
waters.

Saturday through Wednesday: There are no concerns through
Monday. The risk for Small Craft Advisory conditions will
increase Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north
and storm system approaches from the west.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...