National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221737
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chances for rain today; drier tonight and tomorrow

Low chances for rain will continue today as PWAT values remain
elevated between 1.33-1.50" (which ranks in the 75-90 percentile of
climatology) coinciding with a shortwave in the mid-levels and
isentropic lifting in the 305k to 310k pressure levels. Rain chances
will gradually decrease from west to east late this morning with
chances decreasing below 10% late this afternoon into this evening.
A ridge will slide into the region tonight and tomorrow promoting
drier conditions.

Temperatures will remain cool for one more day tomorrow as highs are
expected to top out in the mid 70s across the region. As the ridge
slides into the region tonight into tomorrow, warmer temperatures
are expected Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the mid 50s islands across
the Coastal Plains, Victoria Crosswords and northern Brush County to
the lower 60s across the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The GFS and ECMWF are generally in agreement that an upper level
disturbance will move across the southwestern CONUS/southern
Rockies Thursday/Thursday night, then across TX/Southern Plains
Friday, while another upper system moves across the West Coast
Friday, the southwestern CONUS Friday night/Saturday, then
TX/Southern Plains Saturday night/Sunday. The CWA is predicted to
near the synoptic scale ascent associated with these systems
Friday and Sunday. PWAT values are expected to be near/above
normal during the period. Increased the PoPs slightly above the
NBM to add isolated convection to portions of the Victoria
Crossroads during the afternoon hours Friday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR CIGs can be expected through most of the TAF period for VCT,
ALI and CRP. The exception is in the morning when brief periods of
MVFR conditions will be possible. MVFR conditions are expected
earlier for LRD and COT with lower CIGs beginning around 04-06Z
and prevailing through 18Z Tuesday, possibly into the afternoon.
Light east winds will become more southeast by late afternoon and
continue through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Weak to moderate northwest flow will shift to the east this
afternoon before eventually transiting to the southeast Monday
night. Low chances (20-35%) for rain will continue this morning and
afternoon across the southern marine zones with drier conditions
Monday night and Tuesday. In response to upstream upper level
disturbances, expect increasing onshore flow to the Small Craft
Exercise Caution/Small Craft Advisory categories Thursday night
through Sunday over the coastal waters. No significant
precipitation anticipated during the period. However, owing to
moist conditions, the development of nocturnal isolated showers
could occur. The GFS predicts surface dew point values to reach
the current SST values and thus advection fog may occur over the
bays/nearshore waters. However, not confident to add such since
advection fog more likely when the SST values are cooler.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  61  81  70 /  20  10   0   0
Victoria          75  57  79  67 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            71  62  82  70 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             73  58  81  68 /  30  10   0   0
Rockport          74  66  79  72 /  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           74  61  83  70 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  59  80  69 /  30  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  67  81  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...TE/81