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000
FXUS65 KCYS 110533
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1133 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected across much of the region
  Friday and through the weekend. Afternoon highs in the 70s can
  be expected east of the Laramie Range and into the Nebraska
  Panhandle.

- Potential for a storm system to impact the region by early
  next week, but confidence on any expected impacts are low at
  this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Cold front pushing through the CWA this afternoon...kicking off
some showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of it over the
South Laramie Range and central Laramie County. Even getting a
couple lightning strikes across the Summit into extreme
northern Colorado. Hires simulated radar showing these showers
ending shortly after 00Z this evening.

Beautiful weather upcoming Thursday and Friday as upper level
ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures at 700mb rise from
-5 to -6C currently to 0 to +2C Thursday and +6 to +8C Friday.
 Afternoon temperatures respond accordingly with highs in the
 60s across the Panhandle Thursday and upper 50s across
 southeast WYoming. With the even warmer 700mb temperatures
 Friday...look for highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s
 across the Panhandle and mid to upper 60s west of the Laramie
 Range. Not looking at any weather hazards as the high continues
 to build over the area. May begin to see increasing fire
 weather concerns Friday with these warmer temperatures. Afternoon
 humidity east of the Laramie Range in the mid teens Friday
 afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The models are depicting the transient upper level ridge keeping
its grip over the region on Saturday and Sunday. This will
provide very mild conditions on both days with temperatures
well above normal. It may be a bit breezy over the wind
corridors, but would not expect any wind highlights at that
timeframe.

Looking at the WPC clusters early next week there is some
uncertainty on the timing of the closed low approaching the
region. A couple of the clusters tries to push the closed low
into southwest Utah by 00Z Monday which may bring some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening west of the
Laramie Range. Meanwhile, the other clusters keeps the closed
low a bit further west. Based on the pattern, it seems to favor
a bit more progressive flow than last week. This may also limit
the rapid cyclogenesis potential as well. The ECMWF ensembles
seem to promote a deeper closed low developing east of the
Front Range on Monday into Tuesday while the rest of the models
are a bit weaker and more progressive. Even with the deeper
ECMWF it does not look as cold as our wave last week, but it
still looks rather windy but not near as extreme as last
weekend. Therefore, this may favor a more wetter pattern vs.
snow. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty this
far out, so stay tuned. &&

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. There is a
slight (10-20%) chance for fog near KLAR and KCYS for a few
hours Thursday morning, but the probability is too low to add to
the TAF. Otherwise, quiet with NW winds gusting 20 to 25 knots
late morning through the afternoon. Some mid level clouds will
filter through during the day also.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...MN