435
FNUS28 KWNS 102134
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains
into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and
eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with
the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida
and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging
will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an
upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will
likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest
mid-next week.

...Florida Peninsula...
Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values
and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the
southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to
critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is
likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next
week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions
of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as
another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of
potential critical conditions remain uncertain.

...Southwest...
Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far
southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos
likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances
of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across
portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain,
through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to
receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to
increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with
locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and
mid-elevations by the end of next week.

..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$