Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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353 FXUS63 KDLH 051737 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions Monday with breezy southeast wind and humidity dropping to 30-40 percent for most. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops Monday night and continues through Thursday. Highest chances will be Monday night into Tuesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Today into Monday... Patchy fog was occurring this morning under high pressure and light winds. The fog will lift for most by 9AM. There was a relatively narrow band of clouds moving east through western into northern Minnesota and these will continue but should decrease this afternoon. There will be some additional cumulus that develops but skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs will be in the sixties for most areas. Mostly clear skies will occur tonight with low in the mid- thirties to mid-forties. Shortwave ridging will move through Northland Monday with strong low pressure over the Northern Plains. We kept Monday dry, going with consensus that keeps the showers west or south of the Northland until Monday night. The pressure gradient will strengthen Monday between the low to the west and high pressure off to the east and gusty southeast will develop. Winds around Lake Superior will be off lake and strongest in the Twin Ports area. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday with the gusty winds and humidity values dropping to 30 to 40% for most. Highs Monday will be in the mid- sixties to around seventy but it will be much cooler with the breezy off lake winds around Lake Superior. Monday night through Thursday... Showers and some thunderstorms will develop Monday night and continue into Tuesday evening with increasing forcing from the upper low and surface low/fronts. A southerly 850MB low level jet of 40-50knots is expected to aid in moisture transport and PWAT values are forecast to climb to 1.25" Monday night into Tuesday. Forecast instability isn`t very high but some thunderstorms will occur through Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected. Rainfall amounts Monday night into Tuesday night range from a third of an inch to a but more than an inch. Ensemble models have the highest chances for exceeding 1" of rain at 20-40% up the I35 corridor and along the North Shore. Some locally higher amounts will be possible, especially with the thunderstorms. The upper low will remain over the Northern Plains into Wednesday then it will shift east and south late week week. Showers will remain over the Northland into at least Thursday although rainfall amounts will be lighter compared to the Monday night into Tuesday evening period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. Scattered to pockets of broken fair weather cumulus with bases at 5-6 kft will continue through the afternoon before dissipating early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Winds remain generally less than 10 knots until Monday morning, with southeast winds gusting to around 20 knots for many terminals near the end of the TAF period as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching low. Winds turn stronger after the end of the current TAF period Monday afternoon into Monday night out of the east with precipitation chances returning as early as Monday night in central MN. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Winds are expected to be at or below 15 knots today into tonight. There may be some patchy fog in spots but it`s expected to lift this morning. Winds will be easterly on Monday and they will strengthen through the day as the area will be between strong low pressure over the Northern Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds will strengthen further on Tuesday. Conditions will become hazardous, mainly for smaller vessels Monday roughly from Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. As winds increase Monday night into Tuesday, hazardous conditions will become more widespread. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Melde