Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 252329
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
629 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain is forecast tonight with highest amounts in west
central Illinois.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight.

- Turning blustery and colder on Tuesday with lingering showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A non convective moisture plume is well established from east Texas
through Wisconsin early this afternoon. This moisture feed is being
drawn into the large low pressure system which is occluding over
western Iowa.  There is shallow convection in southwest Iowa, in the
vicinity of the surface and upper low, which appear to represent a
mini supercell threat there.

Tonight, widespread rain is expect in all areas, but qpf will be
much higher in the east 1/2 of the area. The moisture plume in our
Illinois counties should back westward somewhat with the wave of
energy rotating up from northwest Arkansas.  Thus rainfall falling
at 0.25 per hour or less should take place now, through 9 PM in our
west central Illinois counties, and for few hours in all other
locations.  QPF of 1.5 to 2 inches is likely there, with some threat
for 2.5 to 3 inches. Farther northwest, a shorter duration of this
rain will result in 0.25 to 1.25 rains. Other than west central
Illinois, this rain is beneficial.  There should be some in bank,
significant rises on the La Moine River.

Overnight, as the system moves east, allowing for drier air to move
in aloft (shutting down the widespread rain), some thunder is
possible.  Given the cold air aloft, small hail seems a threat
mainly in southern locations.

Cold advection will be arriving towards morning, and that creates a
moving target for both the overnight low, and tomorrow`s high.  It
appears we`ll cool down to the mid 30s west to around 50 east by 8
AM, then recover 5 degrees east to 10 degrees west for the afternoon
in CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Tuesday night, stratus may stick around all night, but the bulk of
guidance shows clearing late, and lows in the teens northwest to mid
20s central and southeast.  Wednesday will be last cool day in this
regime, with highs in the upper 30s north to upper 40s south.

Thursday through the weekend will see warming conditions in the 50s
and 60s (possibly near 70 south), as zonal flow aloft spreads warmth
over the Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will be southerly through
our area, with a warm front developing near our northern areas later
in the weekend. Eventually, that will result in daily rain/thunder
chances as short wave energy ripples through the zonal flow along
the frontal boundary nearby. This pattern is not greatly predictable
with location of qpf this far out, but normally, it`s a year round
wet pattern.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Cigs and vsbys will continue to be a challenge through the
period as rain is expected at all TAF sites. Sites have been
slow to lower to MVFR cigs, with some staying above even with
rain. Expect this to continue for next couple of hours before
cigs really drop to MVFR and even IFR overnight. Vsbys have not
been as bad as advertised, we are going to need stronger
showers. The best chance for those are at MLI and BRL, but
confidence on timing is low so will leave 4sm. Could see some
sites get to 2sm overnight with stronger showers. Cigs will
likely remain later into the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gibbs


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