Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 251113
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
613 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Very weak low pressure moving through central Illinois has brought
strengthening northerly flow to the area in its wake. The north
breeze is ushering in dewpoint in the lower to mid 30s, and somewhat
cooler temperatures. Winds as of 2 AM are blowing at 10 to 20 mph
over much of the area, which is certainly going to provide a bit of
chill for anyone who left windows open from yesterday afternoon`s
warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Today`s weather will be cooler than yesterday by over 10 degrees due
to the cold advection since last evening. However, with ample
sunshine, today will be quite pleasant with highs near 60 north to
63 to 65 central and south. Afternoon humidity values should drop to
the 25 to 30 percent range. This won`t be quite as low as yesterday,
but it will continue the trend towards drying out topsoil.  High
clouds will initially be over the entire area, as well as a narrow
band of Lake Michigan stratus now found just north of the I-80
corridor. These clouds will sink south and thin out today, resulting
in full sun, and tonight, clear conditions.  The dry air and clear
skies should allow for a chilly lows in the mid 30s northeast to
lower 40s southwest.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Long term period will begin quiet with average to above average
temperatures.  At the end of the period, medium range guidance
supports an active, `summer-like` pattern for the area.  The return
of precip will occur across the area next week. With it, the first
real chance for thunderstorms across the area.  Before we discuss
that, let`s focus on the rest of the week and this weekend. Gorgeous
weather is expected through the weekend.  Temperatures are forecast
to be above average this weekend with temperatures reaching the
upper 60s to low 70s across the area.  If you need to do yard work,
this weekend will be great for that.   Currently think that
temperatures in the long term will be warmer than what guidance has,
especially the blended forecast temps.

Next week, pattern will change to a SW H5 flow with a largescale
trof located across the western US.  Guidance suggests that this
trof may not move much through mid week.  With this pattern, we are
set to see just about every wave that moves into the central US.  We
will see rain and thunder across the area, especially late Tuesday
into Wednesday.   There are differences in the guidance in overall
flow.  At this time, those differences mean either a long duration
rain event or a progressive front with precip then NW flow. Do not
have confidence in either solution other than we look to be wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Mid and high clouds will continue to decrease to clear skies today
and remain clear tonight. A narrow band of 2500 to 3000 ft stratus
is found near Interstate 80 early, and may drift south to near
Burlington before dissipating. Uncertainty exists whether is will
remain MVFR as is dissipates, thus we will only put in the short 1
hour window of 12-13Z at MLI and just scatter it out at BRL. Winds
will remain north to northeast around 8-10 kts through tonight,
then decrease under 7 kts after dark.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin


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