Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
000
FXUS63 KDVN 151752
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1252 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...18z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather through the period as most precipitation
producing systems miss the area.
- A windy weekend and cool down to start next week is expected.
Temperatures will rebound by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
High pressure centered over western NE will build into the area
today. Clouds should clear out as we get further into the day.
Cooler will also slide into the area as largescale NW flow
brings CAA to us. While we look to have good sun today, cooler
temps aloft means that highs today will be cooler than the last
few days. Still highs in the 50s area-wide with steady 10 kt
winds will lead to a mild mid March Friday.
Tonight, the beginning of a series of waves will move into the
area from the NW. This will bring a cold front into the area
near daybreak. Very dry air will keep us dry as the front and
wave pass through the area. CAMs suggests that there may be some
returns on radar entering northern Iowa at the end of the period
into Saturday morning. This should remain as virga or isolated
sprinkles into Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
NW flow remains through the beginning of the period as 2 - 3
waves move into the area through the weekend. Each of these
waves will bring no pops to the area, with exception of maybe
sprinkles on Saturday, but will bring gusty winds and colder air
into the area to start next week. Eventually the ridge builds
and brings moderating temperatures starting Tuesday as we warm
back into the 50s and 60s for the rest of the week.
Winds will gust to near 30 MPH on Saturday as a vort max rotates
through the area area. With dewpoints dropping due to strong
mixing, expect RHs to drop as well. While dewpoints drop, this
recent rain will likely have lead fuels to begin to green up.
We don`t start receiving greenness values til next week from
observers. With the currently cured fuels in the grids, the
addition of the gusty winds will result in very high GFDI
values. This may not really be the case and might be an artifact
of not having updated greenness values. The warm temps and
recent rains have sped up this process compared to what we
normally expect to see. Will continue to mention a low end very
high fire danger day. Unless we really see RH values plummet and
winds increase, think the threat will stay as advertised.
After this, cold air is expected with a few mornings dipping
back into the 20s and teens for lows (Sunday and Monday most
likely). Quiet weather is expected through this period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Generally a VFR TAF, but with increasing low to mid level winds
ahead and then behind a frontal passage by late Sat morning,
some mechanical turbulence in store for the area. A passing sfc
ridge from the west to produce west-northwest winds this
afternoon, with the winds then backing to the southwest and
increasing late tonight and into Sat morning. With a west-
southwest low level jet(LLJ) increasing to 40+ KTs late tonight,
there will be some LLVL wind shear before the sfc winds become
gusty by mid Sat morning. Mid to late morning pre-frontal gusts
may range up to 30 KTs.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...12