Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 151040
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
540 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through the period as most precipitation
  producing systems miss the area.

- A windy weekend and cool down to start next week is expected.
  Temperatures will rebound by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

High pressure centered over western NE will build into the area
today. Clouds should clear out as we get further into the day.
Cooler will also slide into the area as largescale NW flow
brings CAA to us. While we look to have good sun today, cooler
temps aloft means that highs today will be cooler than the last
few days. Still highs in the 50s area-wide with steady 10 kt
winds will lead to a mild mid March Friday.

Tonight, the beginning of a series of waves will move into the
area from the NW. This will bring a cold front into the area
near daybreak. Very dry air will keep us dry as the front and
wave pass through the area. CAMs suggests that there may be some
returns on radar entering northern Iowa at the end of the period
into Saturday morning. This should remain as virga or isolated
sprinkles into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

NW flow remains through the beginning of the period as 2 - 3
waves move into the area through the weekend. Each of these
waves will bring no pops to the area, with exception of maybe
sprinkles on Saturday, but will bring gusty winds and colder air
into the area to start next week. Eventually the ridge builds
and brings moderating temperatures starting Tuesday as we warm
back into the 50s and 60s for the rest of the week.

Winds will gust to near 30 MPH on Saturday as a vort max rotates
through the area area. With dewpoints dropping due to strong
mixing, expect RHs to drop as well. While dewpoints drop, this
recent rain will likely have lead fuels to begin to green up.
We don`t start receiving greenness values til next week from
observers. With the currently cured fuels in the grids, the
addition of the gusty winds will result in very high GFDI
values. This may not really be the case and might be an artifact
of not having updated greenness values. The warm temps and
recent rains have sped up this process compared to what we
normally expect to see. Will continue to mention a low end very
high fire danger day. Unless we really see RH values plummet and
winds increase, think the threat will stay as advertised.

After this, cold air is expected with a few mornings dipping
back into the 20s and teens for lows (Sunday and Monday most
likely). Quiet weather is expected through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites. Winds
will be the main aviation concern with sustained winds in the 10
to 12 kt range during the day. Does not look very gusty today,
but if there are any gusts they would be under 20kts. Expect a
wind shift late in the period

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs


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