Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 192326
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
626 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

18Z surface data has high pressure across the Plains. Dew points
were in the 20s from the Great Lakes into the northern Plains. Dew
points in the 30s ran from the Ohio Valley into the central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen from late this afternoon
through Friday. Light winds combined with nearly clear skies will
allow temperatures to plummet tonight with record lows possible.
Refer to the climate section for specific numbers.

Fog is possible where the snow field was located at sunrise Thursday
morning. How the fog develops and evolves will dictate whether or
not a headline might be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Friday night through Sunday
Assessment...high confidence

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen as high pressure slowly moves
from the Midwest to the Great Lakes. Temperatures will slowly
moderate but will still average below normal.

Sunday night on...

Sunday night through Monday night
Assessment...high confidence

The quiet and dry weather will continue Sunday night through Monday
night as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the east coast.
Temperatures will continue to average a little below normal.

Tuesday and Tuesday night
Assessment...medium confidence

The models have a cold front forecast to move through the area.
There are some differences on overall timing with some models
bringing the cold front through Tuesday afternoon with others
bringing the front through Tuesday night.

As a result, the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops
for the far west Tuesday afternoon and slight chance to chance pops
Tuesday night.

Temperatures may be close to normal on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday
Assessment...high confidence

The model consensus has quiet and dry conditions for the area as the
next high pressure builds into the Midwest. Temperatures are
expected to average below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Recent snowmelt favors KDBQ for some patchy fog development
overnight, with visibilities possibly below 1SM at times. Periods
of MVFR visibilities also possible at KCID/KMLI where less snow
occurred this week. Other than the fog, conditions will be VFR
with light winds under 10 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A combination of snow melt and recent rainfall is allowing
tributary rivers in eastern Iowa to slowly rise. The more
significant rises will be seen on the Iowa and Cedar rivers with
some locations approaching but remaining below flood stage.

A river flood watch has been issued for the Conesville, IA area
where the river may reach flood stage in the next 1.5 to 2 days.
The are still some questions regarding the amount of routed flow
from northern Iowa.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Record Lows for April 20...

Moline.........25 in 1983
Cedar Rapids...27 in 2013
Dubuque........26 in 1956
Burlington.....28 in 1956

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP Kinney
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...08



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