Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 122318
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
618 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather with storms through Thursday night.

- Two rounds of severe storms are possible Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

- A significant cool down this weekend with the potential for
  snow showers Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Windy, warm and dry conditions will be seen across the area through
sunset.

After sunset a cold front will slowly begin moving into the northern
half of the area while a weak low moves east northeast across
northern Missouri. This low with help from an upper level
disturbance will initiate storms along the IA/MO border during the
early evening. These storms will then move east northeast through
southeast Iowa and into Illinois. The cold front is expected to keep
the areal coverage of the showers and storms along/south of I-80.

Atmospheric profiles do support small hail (smaller than penny
size) from the stronger storms.

Any precipitation should move east of the Mississippi by 4 AM
Wednesday with the entire area rain free around sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Wednesday through Thursday night
Assessment...medium to high confidence on additional storms that
will have the potential to be severe

Dry conditions will be seen across the area during the daylight
hours on Wednesday. Temperatures will still be well above normal for
mid-March.

The next round of storms will develop across northern Missouri late
Wednesday afternoon or evening along the warm front. These storms
will grow in areal coverage Wednesday night as they move north into
the area.

The overall severe risk Wednesday night will be mainly hail with
wind a secondary risk. Areas south of a Sigourney, IA to Aledo, IL
line is the main risk area. While the tornado risk looks to be less
than 2 percent, any storm along or near the warm front would be in a
favorable shear environment to develop a brief spin up.

Once storms move far enough away from the warm frontal zone they
will quickly become non-severe. A general rainfall around one half
inch is expected across the entire area.

There may or may not be a break in the precipitation during the day
on Thursday. Any break that occurs will allow the atmosphere to
recover for the next round of storms Thursday afternoon and night.

The severe storm potential on Thursday will be dependent upon on how
storm evolve Wednesday night and the Storm Prediction Center has the
entire area in a slight risk. Right now the primary severe risks
look to be large hail and damaging winds. However any storm near the
the warm front or low will have a favorable shear to generate an
isolated tornado.

As the low moves east of the area Thursday night rain will end from
west to east across the area.

Friday through Sunday
Assessment...high confidence on dry conditions with a significant
cool down

Temperatures will be cooler on Friday as cold air moves in behind
the cold front. Windy conditions will make it feel quite chilly
during the daylight hours.

Friday night into Saturday a clipper system will drag a modified
arctic front through the area cooling down temperatures further. The
potential is there for very windy conditions on Saturday with winds
gusts up to 40 mph. Given the drought conditions across eastern
Iowa, the potential is also there for a very high fire risk in spite
of the cooler temperatures.

The windy but dry conditions will continue Saturday night into
Sunday across the area.

Sunday night
Assessment...medium confidence for flurries or snow showers

All models bring an upper level disturbance through the area.
Although moisture is limited, the forcing is strong. The individual
deterministic model runs vary on location for any snow which is also
reflected in the respective ensembles.

There is a very loose agreement and signal suggesting the better
potential for snow showers looks to be east of the Mississippi and
north of I-80. Given the warmth of the ground, at the very worst a
localized dusting may occur on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Monday through Tuesday
Assessment...high confidence on dry conditions with a warming
trend developing

Monday will be a cold day with below normal temperatures as the cold
core of the upper low moves through the area. A warming trend will
begin on Tuesday that will continue through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period. Some
MVFR visibility is possible at BRL and less so at MLI associated
with some scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast to move
across SE IA and west central IL between 04Z and 08Z. Winds
will be light and variable at CID, DBQ, and MLI becoming ESE at
5 to 10 KTS late morning Wednesday. BRL will have a south wind
at about 6 KTS shifting to the SE overnight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...14


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