Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 201130
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
630 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure across the area led to quiet weather this morning
across the area. Temperatures across northern counties were
dipping close to record lows for the date. A few high clouds were
the only thing identified on infrared satellite this morning.
These clear skies will set the stage for a great Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Main forecast concern for the short term are the temperatures. It
appears that most guidance is too low for today as far as highs
go. Yesterday, we were warmer than forecast, likely due to the
full sun and deft of snow. As a result, brought high temps in line
with some of the warmest guidance. When today is over, wouldn`t be
surprised to see temps warmer than forecast. Tonight, clouds will
increase as SW H5 flow brings warmer air and more moisture into
the area. Today will definitely feel like spring across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The long term will contain no winter weather.
Though the over all flow will not favor above normal conditions, we
are disconnected from cold air through late week. Over the weekend,
a large Canadian high pressure will be centered the Great Lakes.
This will bring very light easterly flow to the area, with plenty of
dry air to keep our forecast dry, as any light qpf indicated by the
GFS is most likely going to be virga from mid clouds only. The east
winds around 10 mph or less through Monday will allow for the slow
modification of the air mass to continue. Thus, highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s are expected, Saturday through Sunday, with lower
to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday.

By Tuesday, the low pressure to the south will slide east into the
southeastern CONUS, which will allow for the stagnant upper flow to
become more active in northwest flow. Though moisture is
questionable, both the GFS and GEM support chance pops for rain
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.  However, the ECMWF shows that
wave starved for moisture, and less energetic.

The blended solutions incorporate the wetter GFS and GEM enough that
highs Wednesday under clouds and rain chances are held to the mid to
upper 50s. Thursday and Friday are both forecast to in the lower to
mid 60s again. Thus, the entire extended supports sensible weather
vastly more springlike than any time thus far in April this year.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR conditions to remain through the period. Light winds are
expected through the TAF period. Later in the period, high clouds
are expected to move into the area. These clouds should not affect
flight rules at any sites.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A combination of snow melt and recent rainfall is allowing
tributary rivers in eastern Iowa to slowly rise. The more
significant rises will be seen on the Iowa and Cedar rivers with
some locations approaching but remaining below flood stage.

A river flood watch has been issued for the Conesville, IA area
where the river may reach flood stage in the next 1.5 to 2 days.
The are still some questions regarding the amount of routed flow
from northern Iowa.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Record Lows for April 20...

Moline.........25 in 1983
Cedar Rapids...27 in 2013
Dubuque........26 in 1956
Burlington.....28 in 1956

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gibbs
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...Gibbs



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