Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 162328
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

High pressure was over the area and other than scattered fair
weather cu, there was plenty of sunshine. Mid-afternoon
temperatures were in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Forecast focus on dry and very pleasant weather.

Tonight and Thursday: High pressure will continue to control our
weather in the short term. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s
and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Humidity levels should remain
on the low or comfortable side.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair to good or average
to above average.  Minor changes with little sensible weather
impacts through Friday Night. Above normal temperatures and dry for
typical late spring weather. Main issue remains if area highs may be
2 to 3 degrees higher than forecast with some middle 80s possible
Friday. Secondary issue is precipiation chances this weekend with a
regime still marginal for decent precipitation amounts due to long
wave just east of the area limiting forcing and moisture
availability. Limited severe risk suggested attm also for above
reasoning.

Thursday night through Friday night...minor changes with slightly
lower highs due to more clouds Friday. Warm with mostly moderate
humidity. Highs in the lower 80s with again some mid 80s possible
Friday if we see more sunshine. Dewpoints mostly in the 50s for
comfortable conditions. Lows should be mostly within 3 degrees with
50s both nights.

Saturday and Sunday...Slightly delayed POPS with areas of showers
and thunderstorms mainly Saturday night into Sunday AM. Trends
continue to support a regime not favorable for severe or widespread
heavy rains. Mostly locations should see light to moderate amounts
which should have no significant impacts on the falling river
levels. Temperatures have trimmed a couple of degrees to mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with mins upper 50s the lower 60s into
Sunday and then about 10 degrees cooler for highs on Sunday and
mostly 50s Sunday night with clearing skies for lows.

Monday through Tuesday...Minor changes. Cooler and dry or mostly dry
with high temperatures mostly 75 to around 80 degrees south and lows
mid to upper 50s suggested with around 60 possible south on
Wednesday AM.

Wednesday...warmer with a low chance of showers and storms as
southeast winds return ahead of next system. Highs mostly in the
lower to middle 80s with lows upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/18 as high pressure
remains over the Great Lakes.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...16
AVIATION...08



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