925
ACUS01 KWNS 050051
SWODY1
SPC AC 050050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the
southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this
evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong
tornado remains possible.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream
short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX.
Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this
feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is
forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this
will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards
Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this
region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS
that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very
large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most
robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode
becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to
support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the
next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary
risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight.

..Darrow.. 05/05/2024

$$