454
ACUS02 KWNS 081736
SWODY2
SPC AC 081735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across
parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon
and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind
potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast.

...East TX to South Carolina...

Most guidance is in agreement that an MCS will be ongoing Thursday
morning in the vicinity of northeast AL into northern GA. The
expectation is that this MCS will develop southeast toward southeast
GA/far southern SC through the day. Maintenance of this system
should be supported by a shortwave impulse migrating across the
region with 40 kt of 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreading a
very moist airmass. Downstream destabilization ahead of the MCS
across central/southern GA and perhaps portions of eastern AL is
forecast, with MLCAPE to near 2500 J/kg expected. Both GFS and NAM
forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates develop amid
strong heating into the 80s F. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates
around 7 C/km and elongated hodographs are present. Severe/damaging
wind potential will be the main concern given expected bowing
convective mode. However, should any more discrete convection
develop, a risk for large hail and a tornadoes also will be present
given an environment capable of supporting supercells.

Further east, a cluster of supercells is expected to develop across
north TX southward toward the Hill Country in the vicinity of the
intersecting dryline and cold front. Strong to extreme instability
(3500+ MLCAPE) is anticipated amid a plume of very steep midlevel
lapse rates. This will support intense updraft development amid 40+
kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.
Very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) will be possible with these
storms. Steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE and water-loaded
downdrafts also will support damaging wind potential.

With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering
occurs.  Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from
the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the
evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the
gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead
of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will
exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph).

...North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the Chesapeake
Bay vicinity southward to far eastern NC. Nevertheless, weak
destabilization/airmass recovery is forecast by afternoon. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper
Ohio Valley eastward across parts of VA/NC ahead of the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Locally strong gusts and
small hail will be possible with this activity.

..Leitman.. 05/08/2024

$$