Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

The closed, upper-level low, some surface convergence, and daytime
heating has resulted in convection developing across central MO.
CAPE values are ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg, however, the deep layer
sheer is 25 kts at best, meaning these storms should stay sub-
severe. Can`t rule out 40-50 mph wind gusts and small hail though,
like we saw yesterday across the northwest and western parts of the
forecast area. As for where storms are headed, storm motion is
generally east to west, though the overall system motion is
northwest to southeast. Additional isolated development, mainly
east of I-35, is expected across the area through the evening hours,
then storms should gradually die off after sunset.

Tomorrow, we will keep the easterly surface flow, but an upper level
shortwave ridge will move overhead, helping keep the area mostly
dry. There is a slight chance for isolated convection in the far
eastern part of the forecast area since that area will be under the
backside of the upper level closed low. If anything develops, it`ll
be in the afternoon hours and should be non-severe. Otherwise, skies
should be mostly clear, with highs in the 80s again.

Better storm chances return early Saturday, as a lee-side surface
low and negatively tilted upper level low approach the area. The LLJ
and isentropic lift will aid convection in the early morning hours,
though many models suggest most of the precipitation will diminish
around our western border. Most of the area, should see a break in
for the afternoon hours Saturday, until the surface low and upper
level low move into the area around sunset, producing the second
round of storms. The main area of concern is northwest MO and
northeast KS, which is where the triple point should be located.
This round could be severe with SBCAPE values near 3000 J/kg and
deep layer shear between 35-45 kts. There is still some model
variance when it comes to where the surface low and warm front will
be located, but right now it looks like the surface low should
be in northeastern KS with the warm front draped across MO
between the MO River and the IA/MO border. Damaging winds and hail
are the main concerns right now, but can`t completely rule out
the tornado threat. Storm chances will continue into Sunday
morning as the system passes overhead, most likely in the form of
an MCS.

The speed of the system moving through does vary, with the NAM and
ECMWF moving things through quicker than the GFS and Canadian. If
the system speeds up, precipitation will move out quicker and
temperatures should top out in the upper 70s and low 80s on Sunday.
On the other hand, if it moves slower, precipitation will move
out slower and temperatures would likely get into the mid to upper
80s on Sunday. The variances in the models will continue through
the early next week and with that, on/off precipitation chances
remain in the long term, though they are low at this point.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with a easterly
winds prevailing by the daylight hours of Friday. Only issue to
watch will be VCTS for the MCI terminal as there are some isolated
storms bubbling up in west central Missouri early this evening.
The activity is expected to settle down quickly after 01Z and the
setting of the sun.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Cutter



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