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000
FXUS63 KEAX 121137
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected Saturday into middle next
  week.

- Showers and thunderstorms appear increasingly likely Monday
  into Tuesday, with some potential for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The upper trough over the Ohio Valley will continue to make steady
progress eastward, with surface high pressure building into the
central CONUS. Northwest winds will continue to advect/maintain dry
air in place. As temperatures warm into the 60s during the
afternoon, relative humidity values will fall into the 20-30 percent
range. Fortunately the pressure gradient will gradually relax during
the day, with weaker sustained wind speeds than yesterday. With the
more modest wind speeds (10 mph west to 20 mph east) and continual
greenup ongoing, overall fire weather conditions will be mitigated
to some degree.

A notable warmup is expected beginning on Saturday and continuing
through middle next week as a highly-amplified upper ridge builds
across the Plains. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the upper
70s and 80s - some 20 degrees above normal in many cases. Outside of
the warm weather, an increase in low-level moisture will occur
as modified Gulf moisture advects northward. Attention turns to
a closed low ejecting into the Southern/Central Plains by
Monday/Tuesday. There still remains considerable uncertainty to
the details; specifically the track and timing of key features.
Mid-April climatology and the ejection of a negatively-tilted
wave certainly is suggestive of severe weather over portions of
the Plains and points eastward, but narrowing down those areas
and the specific threats is something that will be fine tuned
over the coming days. The takeaway is that an increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms can be expected in the
Monday-Tuesday period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Winds are
expected to be out of the NW before becoming light and variable
after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pesel