Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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142
FXUS63 KEAX 181947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 237 PM CDT WED APR 18 2018

Gusty northwesterly winds should begin to diminish near sunset as
mixing decreases and a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of
this morning`s cold frontal passage relaxes. The resulting calmer
winds and clearing skies overnight will set the stage for
widespread frost early Thursday morning. Sensitive vegetation will
need to be protected as surface temps dip to near freezing for
areas south of the Missouri River tonight, with sub-freezing
temperatures expected north.

Thursday high temps will rebound slightly with a return of
insolation, though persistent cold advection will maintain the
cooler trend with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 50s. By
late Thursday into Friday morning, an upstream ridging pattern
will advect overhead, while at the surface, weak warm advection
will boost temps into the low 60s Friday afternoon. The overhead
pattern will then give way to a deepening upper low crossing into
the Central and Southern Plains Friday night. While the attendant
surface low will remain well south of the forecast area, a low
level jet underneath downstream PVA could result in light rain
showers Saturday morning and afternoon, mainly south of I-70.
Ample dry air in the low levels should help to evaporate much of
this, though still cannot rule out periods of light rain
throughout Saturday, perhaps into Sunday morning as well. Dry
conditions will return by the late weekend into the early work
week. This looks to be brief, however, as a shortwave trough clips
the area with resulting precipitation chances possible Tuesday.
The overall temperature trend will reflect cooler than normal
conditions until Monday. At that time, a more prolonged period of
seasonal temperatures will persist heading into the mid-week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED APR 18 2018

MVFR stratus should linger over the terminal sites this afternoon
as cold air continues to advect from the northwest. May see some
improvement this evening to VFR, though periodic MVFR is possible
until closer to 06Z. Will see a return of MVFR by the end of the
forecast period until Thursday afternoon. Surface wind gusts
should taper off this evening and become northeasterly with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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