Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 162012
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
312 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON APR 16 2018

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure have taken control,
warming temperatures and clearing the skies. The surface high will
move over the area tonight, helping temperatures dip into the 20s
for those north of the MO River, and low 30s for those south. This
and the light winds will help dewpoint depressions decrease
resulting in areas to widespread frost across the forecast area.
Have issued a Frost Advisory for counties along and south of the MO
River as a result from 1 AM through 9 AM Tuesday. Sensitive
vegetation and crops could be damaged.

Good news is, tomorrow a warm front will lift north through the
area, in response to a lee side trough developing over the Rockies.
This will help highs get into the 70s in west central MO and east
central KS, 60s along the MO River, and 50s in northeast MO. The
surface low and associated upper level shortwave trough will move
through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a chance for
rain north of HWY 36. There is a slight chance to hear some
thunder, but we should be capped when the system moves through. By
the daylight hours Wednesday, the cold front will be through the
area with winds coming out of the northwest. It will be rather
gusty during the day with sustained winds between 25-30 mph and
gusts up to 40 mph. This, in conjunction with drier air will
result in elevated fire weather danger. Any burning taking place
on Wednesday needs to be done with caution, as it won`t take much
for fires to get out of control.

Another surface high and upper level ridge will move overhead for
the rest of the work-week, keeping skies clear and temperatures in
the 50s and 60s. These temperatures are still below normal, but it
could be worse and at least the sun will be out. This weekend`s
system has slowed down some, but should still impact our area. The
rain should move in late Friday into Saturday morning. While the
upper level low will move over the region, the surface low should
move to the east south of MO and KS. This will keep the better
rain chances in our southern counties. The system will be slow to
exit the area, so rain chances will continue through Sunday. Highs
for the weekend should stay in the 50s and 60s with lows in the
40s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON APR 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period across the
forecast area. High pressure will settle in overnight helping
winds become light. By tomorrow morning, winds will have veered
from the north to the east-southeast and wind speeds will begin to
increase, as a surface low approaches the area. As for ceilings, the
clouds will continue clearing out today. Additional cloud cover
will move in though with the warm front late morning tomorrow.
Right now, ceilings look to stay VFR but there are some hints
high-end MVFR ceilings are possible, so will continue monitoring
that for future forecasts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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