Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211925

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
225 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Issued at 210 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

Residual low-level cloud cover will continue to erode through the
remainder of the afternoon as surface ridging builds into the local
area. Seasonable temperatures today will be short-lived as a multi-
day warming trend commences Tuesday and well through the work week
and weekend.

As a deepening upper-low stalls over the west coast, a weak ridging
pattern will develop upstream the local area. This feature will
continue to build through the remainder of the work week, setting
the stage for persistent southerly surface flow and warming temps
peaking in the upper 80s to perhaps low 90s during the afternoon of
each day. Additionally, dew point values in the mid to upper 60s will
help to bring heat index values into the lower 90s from the mid
to late week. Models continue to hint at a few chances of precip
via air mass type thunderstorms, though overall, precip chances
will be hard to come by until this weekend. For now, there is at
least some potential for isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday, though subsequent model
runs continue to chip away at this likelihood in general. It`s not
until early Saturday that the existing mid-level ridge may be
pushed southward courtesy of a progged shortwave trough digging
into the Great Lakes. This feature may provide some ascent atop
persistent southerly return flow for storms to form by the early
weekend. With that said, the better forcing may stay just north of
the area. The ridging pattern will then rebuild over the area by
the early work week. All said, Memorial Day weekend should offer
mostly dry conditions with brief chances of precip mixed within on
Saturday. Hydration is encouraged for outdoor activities during
the holiday weekend as this will mark the first, and unseasonably
early, prolonged heat event for the season.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

Lingering MVFR stratus should slowly erode through the early to
mid-afternoon hours. Surface winds will slacken overnight as high
pressure builds into the area. Overnight fog is possible,
depending on how quickly residual cloud cover clears. May need to
further reduce conditions in subsequent forecasts depending on
these trends. Conditions should then improve by the mid-morning




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