Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160425
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2018

It is a cold one today (which is an understatement for this time
of year), with a high at MCI so far of only 30 degrees F. The
record lowest maximum temperature for MCI is 41 degrees F in 1993.
Right now it doesn`t look like we will get warmer than 34 degrees
F, and reaching that might be a stretch, so we are definitely on
track to smash the record. The same goes for St. Joseph, whose
record is 43 degrees F in 1917 and forecast high for today is also
34 degree F. Another "fun" fact for this unpleasant weather is it
looks like we won`t even reach the lowest normal high temperature
for KC (the lowest normal high temp for KC is 38 degree F in
January).

We are still seeing some flurries across the forecast area, as the
upper level low and associated vorticity maximums remain overhead,
slowly moving east. Flurry chances will continue to diminish as the
day progresses. Very little accumulation, if any, is expected.
Tomorrow, upper level ridging and surface high pressure move in,
bringing us warmer temperatures and clear skies. It is going to
stay windy though for the first part of the day, as we will remain
under the tight pressure gradient of the exiting surface low and
approaching surface high.

The warming trend will continue Tuesday, as we transition into
the warm sector of a lee side trough developing over the Rockies.
Wednesday, the lee side trough and an upper level shortwave trough
are projected to move through IA, bringing two main concerns. The
first is there may be elevated fire weather danger, especially
for those south of HWY 36. It will be windy and the relative
humidity should drop into at least the low 30s, so caution is
going to need to be taken if burning. The second concern for
Wednesday another round of rain, mainly along the MO/IA border.
The NAM wants to bring rain chances a little further south, with
the Canadian keeping precipitation in IA, and the GFS/ECMWF
splitting the difference. The ingredients certainly come together
better across IA, but can`t rule out rain chances for our far
northern counties, so have slight chance for rain for now. After
the system passes, temperatures will cool a little for the last
half of the week, but we`ll still see 50s and 60s. The next
chance for widespread rain is going to be next weekend, as a an
upper level trough and surface low slowly make their way across
the center of the country.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2018

Ceilings have risen into the low VFR range and there some breaks
int the clouds showing up in satellite imagery. While there may be
a few dips to higher end MVFR ceilings, the prevailing bases
should be in the 3500 to 4500 ft range through the remainder of
the overnight across eastern KS and northern MO. Skies still look
to become mostly clear to clear by late in the morning.
Northwesterly winds will continue to decrease through the night
but remain from the northwest through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ028-029-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...CDB



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