Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131117

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2018

Quiet conditions are expected through the next several days as
troughing over the Great Lakes gradually transitions eastward,
keeping any disturbances east of the Plains through the end of
the work week. Fire weather will be the main concern as the
afternoon RHs drop into the 25 to 35 percent range; thus wind
speeds will need to be watched closely for potential SPS or Red
Flag issuances. Currently, the highest potential for fire weather
concerns will be tomorrow and Thursday, when southerly winds
return but moisture lags a bit behind.

Temperatures will rise as return flow and ridging build over the
forecast area Wednesday through the weekend, although high temps
may be moderated by cloud cover and rain chances this weekend
(especially Saturday). A few systems are still progged to impact
the Plains starting as early as Friday-Saturday and again Sunday
night through Monday, however the predictability of especially the
latter system remains fairly low. Models are starting to come
into better agreement on the Friday-Saturday system and QPF has
started to increase with a more southward track to the upper low;
however, it still appears the system will begin to weaken as it
approaches the eastern Plains, potentially resulting in lowering
PoPs and QPF in future forecasts as it moves temporally into the
forecast period of the mid-range models.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast
period. Cirrus will drift southward this morning, leaving skies
mainly clear throughout the day. Currently light north northwest
winds will increase slightly to around 10 kts this afternoon, then
should diminish by this evening.




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