Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 111112

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

Main challenge for today will be potential snow totals across
northeast MO as a compact shortwave trough dives quickly to the
southeast this morning into the afternoon. Lift and upper-level
support will definitely not be a limiting factor, but warm ground
and air temperatures will make it difficult for snow to
accumulate. Precipitation type is currently transitioning from
rain to snow at an air temperature of around 35-36 across
southeast IA, and would expect the same as the entire profile very
gradually cools as the system pushes southeast. QPF amounts will
reach a quarter inch or more in the far northeast corner of the
forecast area, but low snow ratios and even lower potential for
accumulation should keep snow totals between 1-2" on grassy and
elevated surfaces. Will not issue an advisory as travel should not
be highly impacted, especially with road temperatures above 37-38
degrees and little potential for much cooling of those surfaces.

Patchy, light rain or snow showers are possible on the trailing
western side of the system, but will be much lighter due to
thinner saturation and very little lift except on the surface-850
hPa front. Temperatures will warm just a few degrees this
afternoon in all but far northeast MO where temperatures will
remain primarily steady through evening before beginning to fall,
meaning below normal temperatures for the entirety of the CWA.
These generally below-normal temperatures will linger through
Tuesday as northwest flow persist, but the southern position of
the upper jet should keep any additional precipitation chances
well east and south of the CWA.

Warmer temperatures are expected beginning Wednesday and
especially for Thursday through the weekend when ridging over the
western CONUS builds into the Plains. Fire weather will be a
concern as conditions warm and moisture lags a bit behind rising
temperatures, especially Thursday when winds are also expected to
increase. Low rain chances will return Friday in the form of warm-
air advection drizzle or very light rain showers, and while the
GFS shows hints of a bigger system going into Sunday, divergence
in model solutions leads to just broad chance PoPs for the weekend
that will likely decrease as the weekend draws closer in time.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

MVFR stratus will continue to rotate down through the terminals
today, possibly dropping below 2 kft for a period of time this
morning. Ceilings should gradually start to lift this evening,
reaching VFR sometime around 00z. Ceilings will gradually scatter
out overnight across the region, but will be slowest to do so
along the KS/MO border (impacting all terminals). Winds will veer
gradually to the north, then back to the northwest again this
evening as speeds begin to diminish.




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