Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240819
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

Similar pattern to yesterday on tap today, with nearly uncapped
SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg developing as the surface
warms this afternoon. Without any organized source of forcing,
have kept PoPs low but widespread this afternoon, mainly in the
western and southern portions of the CWA where the moisture
profile is more favorable for convection. Ongoing convection in
north central OK may also develop into a lingering MCV, and could
lay out outflow boundaries, both which may aide in convective
initiation this afternoon near our southern CWA border. Any storms
that develop will be short-lived, pulsey and disorganized due to a
very lacking shear profile; thus severe weather is not expected
this afternoon.

Enhanced vorticity along the base of a shortwave trough currently
lifting into the northern Plains may spur DCI late this afternoon
or this evening across the High Plains and into central NE, which
could then dive southeast as an MCS, possibly into northwestern
portions of the CWA late tonight. If storms do not become robust
enough for significant cold pool propagation it is unlikely that
much, if any, precipitation makes it into the CWA, so have had to
walk the blended line between the hi-res solutions with very high
PoPs overnight as far southeast as KC, and the parameterized
models which keep precipitation focused near the forcing in the
central Plains. If storms do develop into an MCS, damaging winds
are possible in far northwest MO.

Tonight`s weather will certainly play a role in the evolution of
Friday`s forecast, especially if cloud cover, precipitation, or
outflow boundaries linger into the daytime hours. On the large
scale, the shortwave trough lifting into the Dakotas today will
round the ridge and head southeast on Friday morning, dragging a
very weak frontal boundary and a subtle upper wave through the
forecast area by the afternoon. Nearly uncapped surface-based
instability will develop once again during the afternoon Friday,
and while the forcing is very weak, it may still be enough to kick
off convection. Deep layer shear and steering flow will remain
weak; however, instability will be strong enough that updrafts
could get rather robust and support some small hail or briefly
strong winds as cores collapse. Poor syncing between mid and
upper-level features -- as well as any possible influence from
preexisting outflow boundaries -- will make timing difficult and
could result in multiple rounds of storms Friday afternoon through
the night, possibly complicating planning for outdoor activities.

The shortwave trough will depart Saturday morning, decreasing
precipitation potential for the rest of the holiday weekend. The
upper-level ridge will strengthen in its wake, resulting in rising
temperatures for the remainder of the weekend. The combination of
heat and humidity may bring heat indices into the mid to even
upper 90s Saturday through Monday afternoons, which could be a
concern for those spending prolonged periods outdoors, especially
this early in the season.

Mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue
as the work week begins, although a hint of a shifting, wetter
pattern appears by mid next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just sct high clouds thru
the morning hours. Sct diurnal cu around 5kft will develop during
the afternoon and persist thru the evening before dissipating.
Although some VCTS can not be ruled out during the late
afternoon/evening, chances seem too low for inclusion in the TAF
at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...73


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