Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 200906
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
406 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.Update...
Issued at 750 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

We will continue to watch eastern Kansas and northern Missouri for
severe storms through late this evening, but currently severe
weather is not looking favorable in areas from Kansas City east into
central Missouri. The storms in central Missouri that are still near
severe limits are a bowing line that is moving east along what looks
like the an east-west boundary left behind from storm activity
earlier in the day. Once that activity moves to the east of our area
(expected by 8 PM) the only storms to watch will be the ones trying
to redevelop along an elevated convergence line extending from east
central Kansas northeast through north central Missouri; roughly
along I-35. Both operational and CAM models hint at the
redevelopment this evening as a weak low level jet tries to develop
across west central Missouri in advance of the shortwave trough,
which is still spinning over central Nebraska. This expected burst
in the low level jet is not expected to last long, so neither is the
redeveloping storms. More widespread storm activity may develop
early Sunday morning as it grows from the activity in north central
Oklahoma, but the severe threat by the early morning hours of Sunday
will be very minimal.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

Early morning surface analysis shows frontal boundary generally
extending from southwestern Iowa to west-central Missouri and down
into south-central Oklahoma. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
were noted north of the front, primarily across eastern Nebraska and
Iowa. Several thunderstorm complexes were also noted south of the
front in southeastern Kansas and central Missouri...and a much
larger complex was noted in central Oklahoma moving to the
northeast. Expect this southern activity to continue into the
morning hours with low-level jet axis positioned from central
Texas and curving up into southeast and central Missouri. The
northern activity may also be able to sustain itself into the
morning hours with mid-level perturbation moving through and
upper jet positioned over the area.

Later this morning should see a bit of an uptick in activity with
complex moving out of Oklahoma and up into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. This activity will move east with time and we may
see a brief respite before the next round during the late afternoon
and evening with a shortwave trough ejecting into the Plains. We may
see some breaks in cloud cover this afternoon which could allow for
a bit of recovery and MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg. If this
happens, a stronger storm or two capable of large hail and strong
winds may be possible, especially near the frontal boundary. Storms
are expected to weaken around sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating.

Scattered showers may linger into Monday with weak mid-level trough
just north of the area. The front will be pushed south with high
pressure moving in behind. Cooler temperatures today but could see
some temperatures swing upward by a few degrees from current
forecast if cloud cover breaks over a location. Tomorrow looks
pleasant with showers possible in the morning but gradual clearing
by afternoon from west to east. The remainder of the week will
see periodic rain chances as several perturbations move through
the flow. Best chances for more widespread rain looks to occur
late in the week in response to trough ejecting out onto the
Northern Plains and attendant cold front moving through.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

Boundary residing from KEMP to KIXD and continuing northeastward
into northeast Missouri should slowly work south with time.
Northerly winds to the north of this boundary will usher in
IFR/MVFR cigs into northern Missouri later after 08-10Z. South of
the boundary scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move
northeastward out of southeast Kansas, thus, KIXD and KMKC may
have some VCTS. Hi-res models develop another round of scattered
showers and storms into eastern Kansas and western Missouri
between 09-12Z. Some light, patchy fog may develop south of the
boundary but ongoing convection should prevent dense fog from
developing.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Update...Cutter
Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...Pietrycha



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