Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250805
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
305 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 AM CDT WED APR 25 2018

An upper level shortwave is moving southeast through Nebraska
currently. Forcing associated with this shortwave is leading to
widespread rain in south central KS. This rain diminishes in
coverage in northeastern KS and northern MO with more rain in IA.
Models are in good agreement filling the area in between the
widespread rains in KS and the more scattered returns in IA,
northern MO and northeastern KS. Radar returns in eastern NE show
some showers developing so that gives confidence that the models
are correct. Regardless, the heavier, more widespread rainfall
will likely be from eastern KS through south central MO,
following closely the track of the upper level shortwave. Overall,
it looks like most of the area will see rain through much of the
day with as much as a half to three quarters of an inch of rain
possible in that area from eastern KS through southern MO. The
cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures on the cool side
today. Temperatures will likely be in the low to middle 50s where
the heaviest rain occurs. In northeastern MO, highs may be able to
climb into the middle 60s.

After this rain moves out of the area, it looks like quiet weather
with seasonal temperatures in the upper 60s through Saturday and
warmer into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. The warm weather
continues into the start of the next work week with highs
approaching 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday. The southerly flow aiding
this warmup will also bring better moisture into the area. This may
result in our next decent chance for showers and storms Tuesday
evening into Wednesday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2018

The period will start off with VFR ceilings around 7,000ft with a
NW wind. An approaching low pressure system will cause an increase
in low level moisture and MVFR ceilings shortly after sunrise.
Rain will start falling around the same time as the MVFR ceiling
which will slowly start to drop visibilities into the MVFR range
as well. Some guidance indicates an IFR ceiling will push into the
area from the east, but the trend is for this to occur slightly
later than the previous forecast. This IFR ceiling will be
short lived and out of the area by the late afternoon as the low
pressure system moves to the south. Ceilings are expected to rise
quickly near sunset with VFR conditions by 1-2z for all sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham


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