Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240451

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1151 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 344 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

This afternoon a warm front exist over the southwestern CWA and
south of the front temperature have crept up into the upper 60s.
Elsewhere across the CWA, easterly winds, cloud cover, and
occasional light showers have held temperatures in the 50s. This
evening a southwesterly LLJ will increase and over ride the warm
front. This will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop and with
weak instability available, there could be some small hail.
Overnight, a upper level shortwave moving across the central Plains
will force a cold front through the area continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances. The cold front will exit the area Saturday
morning however, shower chances will continue across the northern
CWA as the upper level shortwave moves through the region.
Temperatures will also be cool across the northern CWA tomorrow in
the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs in the 50s to the south.
Conditions will dry out briefly Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Conditions will quickly become active again Sunday and Monday as the
region will be under southwest flow aloft. Several lead shortwaves
will eject out from a main upper level digging through the Rockies.
This will allow for the chance for a few rounds of showers and
perhaps a few isolated storms through the period. On Monday night,
as a upper level low closes in the base of the upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS the northern extent of the trough will move into
the northern Plains. This will force a cold front into the area
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for heavy rain with these storms as PWATs are 200%-300%
above normal however, models have been showing the signal for heavy
precipitation south of the area. The slow moving cold front will
slowly exit the CWA on Tuesday afternoon bring shower chances to an
end. high pressure will build into the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday providing a period of dry conditions before another trough
brings a chance for precipitation on Thursday.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Tricky aviation forecast overnight. Through 04Z, scattered showers
continue to develop across eastern Kansas, and moving into the KC
Metro. Additionally, several obs sites in Kansas have finally
dipped to MVFR and this trend is expected to continue as the
surface low continues to progress towards the KS/MO border. With
the low center crossing the KC Metro through dawn, all sites will
experience wind shifts, with northwesterly winds persisting for
the later half of the period. Still introduce IFR ceilings to all
sites in the early morning hours as the low pushes through this




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