Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220435
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1135 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

Forecast focus is on scattered rain chances this afternoon and
overnight.

Light showers continue to reside across portions of eastern Kansas
this afternoon. Water vapor imagery reveal the strong 500mb trough
churning along the Front Range into the western high plains of
KS/OK/TX stretched as far as the Edwards Plateau. In response, a
weak surface trough continues to build northward into southwestern
Missouri/eastern Kansas. Surface dew point spreads have remained
around 15 to 20 F through the day, with Bufr profiles showing
relatively dry low levels, which has resulted in only light bouts of
rainfall across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As the
trough builds east through the evening, isentropic ascent will
increase ahead of the low, along with gradually increasing moisture
return through the lower levels. With the track of the upper trough,
the better rain chances will be across the Ozarks, with scattered
showers remaining possible overnight across the Kansas City Metro
and locations along and near I-70 and south.

Through Sunday, rain chances will remain low and scattered through
the morning into the afternoon as the upper low exits eastward
across Arkansas towards the lower Mississippi valley. With
persistent cloud cover across much of the region, temperatures will
struggle again, with highs in the 50s for most.

Rain chances will linger across eastern Missouri through Monday
morning before brief ridging develops through Tuesday morning ahead
of the first of two quick passing frontal boundaries, Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning and Thursday into Friday. Each front is
associated with a passing short wave trough traversing the northwest
flow. Low rain chances will accompany each front.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

Latest trends suggest mostly dry conditions will continue through
the overnight hours, with the majority of light precip remaining
just south of the terminal sites. A brief sprinkle or two is
possible during the early morning Sunday, though currently not
anticipating much precip at the surface. There is a slight
potential for brief MVFR ceilings early Sunday, though dry air in
the lower levels has been slow to erode. Cloud bases will lower
with time, though overall expecting ceiling heights to remain VFR.
Northeasterly surface winds will continue through the end of the
forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Welsh


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