Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230808

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Issued at 308 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

Main update for today is the addition of some isolated storms this
afternoon, mainly in eastern KS and the western third of MO. Un-
capped instability will develop in an area of enhanced 700 hPa
moisture, similar to the environment across southeast KS/northeast
OK yesterday that spawned isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Storm
coverage will be very limited, and severe weather is not expected.

The rest of the forecast remains similar: unseasonably warm and
primarily dry. Currently, the best chance of precipitation will
arrive Friday or Friday night as a weak cold front pushes through
the region; however with the main upper support well off to the
northeast and little convergence, storm coverage, intensity and
longevity will be limited. In fact, despite the wind shift,
temperatures will actually increase behind the "fropa" for
Saturday and Sunday as the upper ridge surges eastward and flow
quickly returns to the south.

Early next week, the tropical system progged to lift into the
southeast US remains possible, but its impacts and precipitation
appear to remain south of the CWA at least through the forecast
period. Models differ in its eventual track by later next week,
but in the good news department, regardless of the system`s
eventual progression, it does not appear that system will have an
impact on the holiday weekend for our area.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Only a few high
level clouds will move through the area tonight. Tomorrow, diurnal
cumulus should build late in the morning or early in the
afternoon. There is a small chance for isolated showers or storms
in the area. Given the coverage and somewhat low confidence
forecast, will keep any mention out of this forecast. Winds will
be from the southeast at 5 to 10 kts through the forecast.




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