Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KEAX 180454
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

The surface low and associated warm front have been slow to move
north but it`s working it way into the area. This has kept much
of the area cooler than we originally thought, but it`s still a
nice day compared to what we experienced this weekend. Highs
should be in the 60s and 70s for those south of HWY 36 and 50s for
those north. Tonight, the low will move east along the MO River,
bringing a chance for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across
northern KS and MO. Any storm that develops is not expected to be
severe.

Once the low moves through, the winds will pick up and shift to the
northwest. They will be sustained between 25-30 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. Relative humidity is supposed to stay in the 30s, but with
the gusty winds and not much of a chance for a green up this April,
fire weather concerns are elevated for tomorrow. Caution needs to be
taken if burning because it won`t take much for fires to get out of
control.

Thanks to the frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler
Wednesday. Those across northern MO aren`t expected to reach the
50s. Lows are expected to hover near freezing so plants may need
to be covered. Thursday and Friday a surface high and upper level
ridging will move across the Midwest, bringing dry conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures. We should still be below normal
(which is 66 deg), but the sun will be shining.

This weekend`s system continues to trend further south, decreasing
rain chances for our forecast area. The surface low is projected to
move east across AR and LA and the upper level low is also looks to
move across the country further south, across OK and AR. This
trend seems to be in response to the aforementioned surface high,
which will be centered over the Great Lakes at this point,
getting stronger and influencing our weather longer than
originally thought. As for precipitation chances, the ECMWF and
GFS depict a chance for rain in eastern KS and far western MO
Saturday morning through Sunday morning, while the Canadian keeps
us dry. When looking at soundings, we do seem pretty dry at the
lower levels, so it might be hard for precipitation to make it to
the ground. Hopefully that is the case and we can have a dry
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

The forecast will start out with VFR conditions and a steady
easterly surface winds with some high clouds in place. A low
pressure system developing over western Kansas will into the area
around midnight creating multiple aviation issues for the area.
The first issue will be low level wind shear south of KSTJ as a
stronger southerly winds will be in place over a easterly surface
winds. This will last approximately 3 hours until the frontal
boundary pushes through and all winds shift to the NW. While the
low and frontal boundary push through the region an area of MVFR
ceilings will also advect into the area from around 7-8z up north
and around 12z over the KC area. These ceilings should also be
short lived and improve on the backside of the frontal boundary
around 16Z. Winds will be breezy in the late morning through the
evening with sustained winds near 20kts and gusts in the lower
30s.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.