Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED APR 18 2018

Water vapor imagery showing a well-defined positively-tilted
trough working through central Nebraska this morning, with surface
observations showing main sfc low over Topeka and marching due
east. Main cold front set to arrive in the KC Metro and
surrounding locations very soon, with strong northwest winds of
25-30 mph along with higher gusts expected. Was initially
concerned a wind advisory would be needed for a few hours, but
latest RUC pressure change fields suggest the pressure rise
couplet is weakening with eastward progress. Regardless, its going
to be a windy morning with a tight pressure gradient ensuring
gusty northwest winds prevail through much of the day. This will
set the stage for elevated fire danger concerns across the region
as latest available fuel moisture intelligence suggests fuels are
still recovering after such a dry cool season. In any event,
temperatures will take a nose dive pretty soon with this trend
continuing through late morning before modest rises occur later
this afternoon. Main concern heading into the overnight will be
clearing skies and falling temps as lows drop into the lower 30s
for most. This combined with weakening winds should allow frost
formation for many areas, and the dayshift will likely need to
consider frost headlines.

Quiet weather will persist through the remainder of the work week
as weak upper ridging starts to approach the region tomorrow.
This should result in a gradual warm-up as we head towards Friday
with low 60s expected Friday afternoon. As for the upcoming
weekend, still a great deal of uncertainty with the next upper low
that fcst models still insist will pass to our south Saturday
into Sunday. Main question continue to be precip, and just how
far north it gets. For the most part, the Canadian and ECMWF keep
most of our region dry, and the GFS appears to be trending that
way as well. Regardless, the upcoming weekend doesn`t appear to be
a washout by any stretch of the imagination, which is a good
thing because we deserve a nice one finally. Once this feature
passes, models in good agreement that ridging will build overhead
for the start of next week. In fact, upper 60s look to make a
return on Monday before the next storm system brings the next
chance of rain by Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED APR 18 2018

MVFR stratus should linger over the terminal sites this afternoon
as cold air continues to advect from the northwest. May see some
improvement this evening to VFR, though periodic MVFR is possible
until closer to 06Z. Will see a return of MVFR by the end of the
forecast period until Thursday afternoon. Surface wind gusts
should taper off this evening and become northeasterly with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh



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