Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Mid- to high-level clouds will progressively build in from the
west today, limiting some heating during the afternoon but likely
still allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 60s.
Southeast winds will bring a slight increase in surface dewpoints
but will not be enough to keep RH from bottoming out around 30
percent this afternoon, which could slightly elevate fire danger
as winds increase to a sustained 10-15 mph.

High-res models are beginning to indicated a wider expanse of
light rain showers Saturday morning than many of the coarser
models, despite a very significant dry layer between 800-700 hPa
prior to onset. Dry air looks like it will still be a limiting
factor, and even if the atmosphere can gradually saturate, rain
amounts will be very light and delayed from when high-res models
indicate rain could begin. Rain chances do still increase a bit
throughout the day and into Saturday night as the upper low moves
over the region, but as the low center drops southward and upper-
level forcing weakens, any associated precipitation will also
shift south of the region. The highest potential for any (albeit
light) rainfall accumulations still looks to remain south and west
of the forecast area.

Weak ridging will build in behind the weakening upper low early
next week, allowing Monday and Tuesday temperatures to rise to
near 70 degrees. A cold frontal passage is still expected either
late Tuesday or early Wednesday and could knock temperatures down
a few notches, but is not expected to pack a significant punch in
either precipitation or temperatures following behind.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. High-level
clouds based above 10-15 kft will stream into the region and
increase in coverage throughout the day. Winds will remain light
and variable but mainly out of the east over the next few hours,
then will veer and increase out of the southeast by mid- to late
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin


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