Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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610
FXUS63 KEAX 241707
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2018

Current water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low moving away
from the area, in the Ohio River valley. Another shortwave wave
trough is evident moving into Wyoming. Shortwave ridging, between
these two systems, will lead to warm conditions today as highs
climb into the the middle 70s area wide. It`s possible
temperatures will climb into the upper 70s as very dry air and
deep mixing to close to 750 mb develops today. Fortunately winds
are relatively light through the mixed layer and at the surface or
there would be heightened fire danger today.

The shortwave trough moving into Wyoming currently will begin to
affect the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.
Initially, high level cloud cover will be on the increase. Cloud
bases will lower but there is some question as to where enough
saturation will occur to get precipitation down to the surface
heading into Wednesday. The northeastern third of the forecast
area should stay dry as there is just not enough forcing to
overcome the lower level dry air. The southwestern third of the
forecast has a much better chance of saturating and seeing some
light rain showers as there is better forcing with the upper
trough passing through southeastern KS/northeastern OK. How tight
of a gradient there is from the northeast to the southwest is
questionable at this time. For now it looks like a chance for
showers in the KC area through much of the day. If you live on the
northern side of the metro, the chances are lower. The cloud
cover and rainfall will keep temperatures much cooler than the
previous two days. Areas that see rain through the day may be 20
degrees cooler Wednesday.

Most of Thursday looks dry with the area in between two systems
again. The next wave will move into the area Thursday evening and
overnight. This system will spread a chance for light showers
across the forecast area as it`s moving through during the
overnight hours.

Heading into the weekend, a nice warm up is expected, especially for
Saturday into Sunday. While Friday will be close to normal with
highs in the mid 60s, temperatures will warm into the 70s for
Saturday and mid to upper 70s for Sunday. This is the result of
upper level ridging moving over the region. With high pressure
over the eastern half of the country and a trough developing over
the west, winds will be rather strong out of the south through the
middle of country. This may lead to an elevated fire danger on
Sunday before better moisture is able to build northward.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2018

VFR conds are expected to cont thru the first 18 hours of the TAF
pd with increasing cloud cover. OVC cigs around 5kft are expected
to move into the terminals around 08Z-10Z. MVFR cigs with lgt rain
and vsbys reduced to 5SM are expected aft 13Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...73



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