Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201105

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
605 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The upper level system that was the catalyst for the showers and
thunderstorms yesterday will pivot through the area today. North to
northeasterly winds will try to usher low level dry are into the
area this morning however, late this morning the winds relax and and
model sounding indicate increased saturation in the lower levels.
This will allow light showers or drizzle to affect the western CWA
today. With mostly cloudy skies today expect another cool day with
highs in the mid 40s to near 50. Dry are beings to work its way into
the region tonight as surface high pressure shifts from the Plains
into the local area. High pressure will remain in control on
Wednesday allowing for mostly sunny skies. However, with weak mixing
expected highs will remain in the 50s. Wednesday night WAA will get
underway and increase during the day on Thursday. Models depict a
upper shortwave moving through the northeastern CWA on Thursday
which could bring a few showers there but elsewhere conditions
should stay dry. Highs will range from the mid 50s in the
northeastern CWA where showers and cloud cover will keep
temperatures cooler however the western CWA will see temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 60s.

Conditions become more active during the extended forecast period.
WAA continues on Friday which may produce some showers. However,
Friday night a shortwave trough is expected to eject out from the
southern Rockies into the Plains. This will force a cold front
towards the area. There will be a chance for thunderstorms Friday
night however, the time of day of their occurrence would lead to
limited instability for any severe weather to develop. The front
will move through the area Saturday with continued shower chances.
After a brief period of dry conditions Saturday night showers look
to move back into the area Sunday or Sunday night as a upper level
trough moves through the northern Plains forcing another cold front
into the area. The GFS is faster with this feature bringing rain
back into the area on Sunday while the EC is a little slower holding
rain off until Sunday night. These showers are expected to continue
into Monday.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2018

Overcast mid-lvl clouds are btn 080-110 affecting the terminals
this morning. Those clouds should cont to saturate down to 030-050
by 15Z-17Z. This afternoon some models are suggesting MVFR cigs
btn 020-030 at the terminals with lgt rain or drizzle poss. Right
now confidence in those conds are too low for inclusion in the TAF
however, did include a grp of VCSH at STJ where the best chc for
lgt rain or drizzle exists. Cig btn 030-050 are expected to
persist until tonight when skies should clr. The winds will be out
of the N to NW btn 5-10kts thru the TAF pd.




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