Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 150459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

This afternoon and tonight:

A very unstable and uncapped environment exists across the
southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, along and ahead of
stationary front. Severe storms quickly developed in this
environment just east of Kansas City. Other storms developed near
Emporia, KS. With the front draped through the area, additional
storms could form within this environment quickly through the late
afternoon hours. Downdraft CAPE increases across eastern KS and
western MO late this afternoon as well. The thought with storms
during the afternoon is that initial updrafts would be most likely
to produce large hail and then transition to damaging winds as the
downdraft CAPE increases. In the upper levels, the weak shortwave
trough that helped generate the afternoon storms will pass to the
east. This will have a tendency to veer the upper level winds and
lead to period of increased shear late this evening. So the mode
for the second round may differ some from the ongoing round. The
increased shear may support more hail with storms that develop
this evening. But overall, the large hail and damaging winds look
possible with the second round as well. As the low level jet
increases overnight a flash flooding threat may evolve.
Precipitable water values approaching 2" is very anomalous for
this time of year. What may limit flooding potential is the cold
pool forcing storms southeastward rather storms
backbuilding/training.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

It looks like the front will finally have pushed to our south.
This should result in temperatures getting close to normal for
this time of year with highs upper 70s to around 80 degrees
Tuesday and lower 80s on Wednesday. Also, with the front south of
the area, precipitation chances should be confined to just the
southern portions of the forecast area.

Thursday - Sunday:

Temperatures should continue to be above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s Thursday - Friday. Sporadic shower and
thunderstorm chances look possible as well through this period.
Potentially more widespread storms may be possible heading through
the weekend. But given the time of year, and the pattern, model
variability is high so there are no more than just chance pops.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

Scattered showers will remain possible near terminals over the
next few hours, but overall probability for any impacts remain
low. As the cold front slides south, look for surface winds to
become northerly and scattered to broken MVFR cigs to develop and
hold through much of the morning. Improvement to cig heights are
expected during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Blair



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