Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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123 FXUS64 KEPZ 181120 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 520 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Hot, dry, and breezy will be the theme through the weekend and into next week as a quiet weather pattern settles in across the region. The hottest temperatures will be today through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy afternoon winds and warming temperatures through the weekend and into next week. Broad ridge overhead will slowly progress eastward through the short term period with continued warming temperatures on Saturday. Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s on Saturday across the desert lowlands with light breezes and mostly clear skies. By Sunday, a broad upper level trough over the PacNW will push the upper level ridge east of the area, with deep southwest flow overspreading the Desert SW. Weak surface trough across New Mexico, along with deep afternoon mixing will promote breezy surface winds across the area. Winds will range from 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts up to 30 mph, generally out of the west to southwest. Temperatures on Sunday remain similar to today`s temperatures, possible increasing a degree or two topping out in the mid to upper 90s. For the start of next week, deep southwest flow will remain overhead on Monday with the continuation of breezy winds. Dry air with mostly clear skies will promote hot temperatures once again, hot by middle to end of May standards, with temps ranging 4-7 degrees above the seasonal average. Breezy winds remain in place on Tuesday with continued above average warmth. Flow aloft flattens out for the second half of the week. This means continued very dry conditions, light afternoon breezes, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures remaining above average. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds light and VRB through the morning, becoming 8-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots out of the SW during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED through most of the period, with CRITICAL fire weather conditions expected on Monday and Tuesday. A very dry airmass will continue to settle in place across the Desert SW with Min RH values below 15% each afternoon for almost all locations, slightly higher for the higher terrain. Temperatures through the weekend will be 3-7 degrees above the seasonal average with breezy afternoon winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all SW and south-central NM fire weather zones. Min RH values will tank into single digits for the desert lowlands, 8-15% for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento Mtns. Increasing SW flow aloft, along with weak surface troughing and deep afternoon mixing across NM will promote breezy to windy conditions on Monday. Winds will range from 20-30 mph with higher gusts possible, generally out of the W/SW. Critically dry conditions and breezy winds will continue on Tuesday. With this extended period of very dry conditions and warming temperatures, fuels (especially the 10hr and 100hr fuels) will quickly dry and cure. Corresponding ERC charts will sharply increase into the 90-97th percentile through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 97 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 63 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 95 62 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 92 60 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 69 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 92 60 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 83 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 93 57 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 90 56 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 93 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 96 58 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 97 61 100 61 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 87 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 96 63 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 92 60 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 93 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 92 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 95 57 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 92 63 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 92 61 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 82 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 80 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 79 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 84 52 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 90 57 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 92 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 84 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 87 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 90 55 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 85 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 87 55 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 92 55 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 92 57 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 92 55 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 85 56 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers