202
FXUS64 KEWX 110519
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1219 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Morning mid-level clouds were indicative of some unplanned shower
and storm activity in our eastern and southern counties and that has
come to fruition with some scattered activity continuing in the
east. Northeast winds prevail at the surface with speeds around 10
to 20 mph with some slightly higher gusts. Southwest flow aloft
continues across the region and with some upslope flow on the higher
terrain west of the Rio Grande could induce some scattered showers
and storms in Mexico late this afternoon. Some of this activity
could push east into our Rio Grande counties. The HRRR has backed
off this scenario and lowered PoPs slightly as a result. SPC has
also removed the western counties from the marginal risk as well.
Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in
the middle 60s to lower 70s.

For tomorrow, southerly flow returns with weak ascent which may lead
to isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for the western two-
thirds of the area. Highs will be cooler in the 80s for most
locations. Rain chances will increase into Saturday night and early
Sunday morning as the main support from the approaching shortwave
arrives to the area. Rain chances will be in the 20-50 percent
range. Some elevated rain amounts may be possible with amounts
generally less than 3/4 of an inch. Instability amounts will remain
low and not expecting widespread strong storms outside of a small
chance for Val Verde County where instability is slightly higher.
Lows tomorrow night will be back in the in the middle 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An active spring pattern continues with a series of upper level
systems pivoting from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains in the coming week. Additionally, rising humidity and
returning above average warmth will be expected with prevailing
south to southeasterly winds becoming more common within the
forecast. The first period for good rain and storm chances over
South-Central Texas is expected Sunday into Sunday night with
forcing from the first upper level low to the north. Additional
shower and storm activity is then possible Monday afternoon as a
front slides across the region. Tuesday should be a reprieve in
between systems with what looks like a rain free forecast and
slightly lower humidity levels. Moisture levels return and the
increase in forcing ahead of the next upper level system should
bring increasing rain and storm chances from Wednesday through
Thursday. A cold front then looks to clear out the rain/storm
chances into Friday.

With pooling instability and supportive wind shear profiles over
South-Central Texas through much of the period, the times when
convection does develop, it could become organized. Any storm
activity could also produce locally heavy rainfall. Pending on
precedent conditions and locality, some instances of flooding is
possible. Details, such as placement and timing of convection,
become more clear into and through the short term period with
assessment of the capping inversion, and mesoscale features or
boundaries. Overall, the probability for more than 1 inch of
rainfall through the long term are currently more than 50 to 60
percent across the northern and eastern half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions continue through much of the day at I-35 sites, but
lower to MVFR in the west, including DRT, around 12Z this morning. A
few showers may be possible at DRT in the morning with MVFR
conditions likely to continue most the day at this location. These
MVFR ceilings spread east across the area during the evening hours,
eventually lowering to IFR and locally LIFR around 06Z Sunday. A few
showers are possible at I-35 sites this afternoon, although better
chances for showers or thunderstorms will be after 00Z at all sites.
Exact timing for any potential precipitation is still hard to
pinpoint and only PROB30 groups have been added at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  68  81  73 /  10  40  70  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  67  81  72 /  10  40  70  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  68  85  73 /  10  40  60  30
Burnet Muni Airport            81  66  78  71 /  20  40  70  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  92  74 /  20  40  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  66  79  71 /  10  40  80  30
Hondo Muni Airport             84  68  87  73 /  20  40  40  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  67  83  72 /  10  40  70  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  70  84  74 /  10  30  80  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  69  86  74 /  10  40  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           84  70  86  75 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...27