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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170541
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

A weak surface front which entered the CWA Tuesday morning has
retreated northwest, and was located near a line from Gainesville
to Goldthwaite late this evening. Dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s will lead to a mix of patchy fog and low clouds for
areas east of the surface front. Dewpoint depressions have
already dropped to near zero in the far northeast zones, where fog
development will be most likely overnight/Wednesday morning.
Thick high clouds will likely preclude the development of dense
fog, but a few spots may briefly drop below half a mile
visibility. Wednesday morning lows in the 65 to 70 degree range
can be expected east of the front, with lower 60s across the far
western zones behind the front.

The surface boundary will transition into more of a dryline
feature on Wednesday as is becomes quasi-stationary over the Big
Country. Zonal flow aloft and a dryline in April often spells
thunderstorms, and we will need to keep an eye out for isolated
development late Wednesday afternoon. A few convection-allowing
models are indicating possible development near our Colorado
River counties during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. A strong
capping inversion would need to be overcome, and the cap may end
up shutting things down completely. Probabilities of convection
breaking through the cap are high enough to include 20 POPs across
the southwest, but most areas will remain warm and dry with highs
ranging from near 90 in the far west (near the dryline) to around
80 in the eastern-most counties.

Better opportunities for thunderstorms will occur on Thursday as
a shortwave trough swings through the Plains and a cold front
pushes south through the forecast area. The front will be plunging
into a warm and exceptionally unstable airmass with surface based
CAPE forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 j/kg range at peak
heating. Effective shear around 30 kt when coupled with such high
instability will support supercell development, which would pose
mainly a large hail threat, followed by damaging winds. Weak low
level shear should keep the tornado threat low, but an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out given the highly unstable environment.
With that said, the better forcing for ascent will be displaced
to the northeast of the CWA, which could keep thunderstorms
isolated in nature and prevent the occurrence widespread severe
weather. As far as timing is concerned, convection would likely
initiate near the I-35 corridor Thursday afternoon, with activity
pushing southeast across the southeastern half of the region late
afternoon through Thursday evening.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/
Update:

The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track,
thus, the previous weather discussion is still valid. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of a
dryline and strong cold front progged to arrive Thursday. Low-
level convergence and moisture pooling along the boundary combined
with strong surface heating should be sufficient for thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon. Though shear will mostly be modest,
the pre-storm environment should still be favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail. Given the
unseasonably hot temperatures, sub-cloud evaporation will be
efficient and will likely result in downdraft acceleration and a
damaging wind threat with the stronger cells. By this weekend,
isentropic ascent over the frontal surface...influenced by a
series of weak mid-level disturbances shifting across the Southern
Plains...will result in periods of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Given last month’s well-above normal rainfall
totals, the soils in many areas remain vulnerable to rapid surface
runoff. Flash and minor river flooding may occur this weekend,
particularly across portions of North and East Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Zonal flow aloft will set up the second half of the week,
resulting in a deepening surface lee trough across the Central
High Plains. An influx of Gulf moisture, coupled with the passing
of a few shortwaves, may produce a few showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Better storm chances will arrive when a
dryline and cold front move into North Texas Thursday
afternoon/night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of
these surface features and very warm temperatures (highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s) will yield plenty of instability in the
warm sector. Models are also indicating there will be enough shear
to sustain updrafts likely resulting in strong to severe storms.
Right now it appears the biggest threat for storms will be north
of the I-20 corridor but this is all dependent on just how far the
dryline mixes east and how far south the cold front moves. Storm
chances will temporarily end Thursday night/Friday morning with
the arrival of slightly drier air. However, models continue to
point towards an overrunning pattern setting up Friday night
through the weekend which will produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms and a potential for heavy rainfall. We will keep
high PoPs through Saturday and decrease them Sunday when the
shortwave trough axis passes to the east. The start of the work
week should be rain-free but it does look like more rain will
return by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night and Thursday with lows
in the 60s to around 70 and highs from the mid 80s to the lower
90s. Temperatures will be cooler on the weekend due to cloud
cover, cold air advection behind the front, and plenty of rain-
cooled air. The coolest day will be Sunday with highs staying in
the 60s and lows Sunday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings will spread north through the region overnight,
with cigs occasionally dropping into IFR range during the morning
hours Wednesday. The latest TAFs will include prevailing IFR cigs
at KACT from 10Z-16Z, with TEMPO IFR in the DFW Metroplex from 11Z
to 15Z. Lower vis with patchy fog is possible, but more likely
for areas east of all TAF sites. Conditions will improve to VFR
18-20Z Wednesday. MVFR ceilings will return after 06Z Wednesday
night.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  88  61  72  59 /   5  30  40  10  60
Waco                70  87  64  77  62 /  10  30  30   5  40
Paris               67  84  59  70  54 /   5  30  60  20  60
Denton              68  88  56  70  54 /   5  30  40  10  60
McKinney            69  86  59  71  56 /   5  30  40  10  60
Dallas              71  90  61  73  59 /   5  30  40  10  60
Terrell             68  85  61  74  58 /   5  30  40  10  60
Corsicana           71  87  64  79  63 /   5  20  30   5  40
Temple              69  87  64  78  63 /  10  20  20   5  40
Mineral Wells       68  90  58  70  56 /   5  30  30  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$